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Potencial productivo de maíz con escenarios de cambio climático en la subcuenca Lerma-Toluca

Sep 2026 · Ecosistemas y Recursos Agropecuarios · Vol 13, pp. e4945 · 0 citations

Abstract

Corn is Mexico’s most important crop, and in the Lerma-Toluca sub-basin, its production faces challenges due to climate change. The objective of this study was to estimate the productive potential of rainfed corn in the Lerma-Toluca sub-basin under current and future scenarios, considering two climate change pathways. Agroecological zoning was developed using observed climate data from the National Meteorological Service and projections from General Circulation Models. The results show that average productive potential is predominant in the region and tends to decrease consistently between 2050 and 2070 in both scenarios. However, in the most extreme scenario for 2070, an increase of 96 812 ha with high productive potential is projected. These findings underscore the need to implement adaptation strategies, such as the adoption of varieties tolerant to high temperatures and reduced water availability.

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