South Korean AI Policy and Economic Possibilities to 2050

Abstract

South Korea’s AI for All program connects public computing support with access to services and demand for domestic models. This working paper examines what such a policy could change in the economy through 2050, combining a preserved World Development Indicators panel, official demographic projections, published potential-growth scenarios and research on AI use and learning. A conditional reference constructed from Korea Development Institute growth windows and the medium population projection raises real GDP per capita by 28.0% between 2025 and 2050, while aggregate GDP rises by 16.7%. Four explicitly uncalibrated cases produce additional 2050 per-capita differences of −2.01%, zero, +1.44% and +6.42%. These are illustrative outcomes under stated assumptions, not estimated effects of AI for All, probability-weighted predictions or an official annual forecast. The comparison includes ordinary AI diffusion and makes the unresolved compatibility with the macroeconomic reference explicit. The analysis connects education, literacy, Korean-language access, work organization, cultural production and developer learning with additional effective use and realized productivity. Employment, earnings, investment, trade, fiscal costs and nonmarket participation require separate evidence. Sensitivities show how activity weights, baseline catch-up and persistence change the interpretation of terminal gains. The accompanying package contains the editable manuscript, source and method records, chart data, figures, reproducible calculations, reconciliation and review records, and verification results. The economic and policy evidence cutoff is 17 September 2026, with a narrow provider-documentation check on 18 September. The package records the scope and limits of actual source reading.