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data science

2,287 papers

#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Towards Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasts for Events of Interest via Outcome-Conditional Recalibration

Calibration is an essential requirement for probabilistic predictions to be useful for decision making. While state-of-the-art prediction methods often yield miscalibrated predictive distributions, several post-hoc recalibration schemes have been proposed to generate calibrated predictions. However, popular recalibrati...

Jakob Benjamin Wessel, Sam Allen · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Transition Path Sampling Using Koopman Operators and Exit-Time Optimal Control

Sampling transitions between metastable states is a central problem in dynamical systems theory and molecular dynamics in particular. A key challenge is the existence of high free-energy barriers that separate the states, making transitions extremely rare. Recent machine learning-based methods cast transition path samp...

Boya Hou, Shane Wang, Siddharth Ambekar et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Gaussian Equivalence for Multi-Head Self-Attention

A theoretical understanding of multi-head self-attention is fundamental to the study of modern neural networks. Using random matrix theory, we establish Gaussian equivalence for multi-head self-attention: replacing softmax attention with rescaled scores plus Gaussian noise preserves the limiting spectral law of the cen...

Tomohiro Hayase, Ryo Karakida · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Controlling Dependence in Implicit Generative Models via Spread Mutual Information

Mutual information (MI) provides an objective for suppressing or encouraging statistical dependence in implicit generative models. However, direct MI evaluation is challenging in implicit models due to typically intractable densities. A remedy is estimating the generator gradient from the difference between conditional...

Jiahao Yu, Song Liu, Jos\'{e} Miguel Hern\'{a}ndez-Lobato et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Extreme Binary Classification: Extreme Value Theory for Extreme Constraint on False Negative

While binary classification is one of the most extensively studied problems in machine learning, the regime in which the goal is to learn a classifier with an almost zero false negative rate remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we introduce the Extreme Binary Classification problem, where the objective is to...

Samuel Gruffaz, Muhammad Fawad, Jaakko Nevalainen · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Possibilistic Radial Transport for Approximate IM Inference

Probing the hypothesis space after seeing the data remains valid under possibilistic inferential models (IMs), provided the significance level stays fixed. The price is computation, as each plausibility is a supremum of the possibility contour over the hypothesis, and the contour itself is approximated at each queried...

Jungeum Kim, Percy Zhai · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Sparsifying Stochasticity, Not Capacity: Partial Stochasticity via Deep Weight Factorization of Prior Scales

Bayesian neural networks need not be fully stochastic to be universal conditional density approximators, but it remains open which parameters should be stochastic. We learn this split by applying deep weight factorization to the prior scales, which are the standard deviations of the parameter priors, while fitting the...

Marius P Linhard, Maurizio Filippone · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Unbounded Characteristic and Universal Kernels

Kernel methods are among the most powerful tools in machine learning and statistics, with a large number of successful applications. Their immense success stems from the flexible function class associated to each kernel---its reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS)---which facilitates statistical analysis, as well as f...

Jose Cribeiro-Ramallo, Florian Kalinke, Zolt\'an Szab\'o · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

The Silhouette Operator: Identifiability of Low-Rank Measures from One-Dimensional Projections

Structured recovery phenomena, such as restricted isometry properties in compressed sensing, have shown that high-dimensional objects can often be reconstructed from remarkably low-dimensional linear measurements. This work develops an analogous recovery framework for low-rank signed measures on $\mathbb{R}^2$, defined...

Robert A. Vandermeulen · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Scalable Logistic Gaussian Process Density Regression with Kinetic Langevin Sampling

Conditional density estimation targets the full distribution of a response given covariates, as required, for example, for per-galaxy photometric redshifts. We develop a scalable Bayesian estimator based on the logistic Gaussian process. The log conditional density has a separable covariance: a Mat\'ern kernel along th...

Daniel Paulin, \'Ad\'am Jung, Andr\'as A. Bencz\'ur · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Certified by Abstention: Distribution-Free Guarantees for Chain-of-Thought Verifiers at Small Calibration Budgets

Signals that predict whether a chain-of-thought (CoT) trace is correct are compared by AUC, but deploying one requires a threshold with a guarantee. We ask what distribution-free selective guarantees deliver for CoT verifiers at realistic calibration budgets of tens to a few hundred labelled problems, using seven open...

Arjun Balaji · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Unpaired Canonical Correlation Analysis

Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) is a fundamental method for multiview shared space learning. However, its strict reliance on paired data poses a significant limitation, as such data is often difficult to obtain or entirely unavailable. In this paper, we present Unpaired CCA (UCCA), a novel method that learns linea...

Nir Ben-Ari, Ronen Talmon, Uri Shaham · 0 citations

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Microsoft Research Blog Oct 6, 2026

What AI gets wrong and what failure teaches us

Jennifer Neville did not want to go into computer science—but that’s exactly where she landed. Neville discusses the starts and stops that led to her professional sweet spot and her work identifying “surprising failures” making it hard for AI to handle complexity.  The post What AI gets wrong and what failure teaches us appeared first on Microsoft Research.

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