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data science

2,653 papers

#artificial intelligence Preprint Sep 2026

Belted Engression: Sufficient Dimension Reduction for Generative Distributional Regression

Modern conditional generative models face significant challenges when learning complex covariate dependencies. While sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) provides a principled approach to compress these dependencies, traditional SDR frameworks were not formulated for conditional generation. To bridge this gap, we propo...

W. Tan, Bing Li, Ling-Zhou Xue · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Decoupled Causal Discovery

Causal discovery from observational data is a fundamental yet challenging task in scientific research. While existing approaches are primarily based on conditional independence tests, structure scores, or restrictive functional assumptions, we propose Decoupled Causal Discovery (DCD), a novel decoupling-based perspecti...

Zheng Guan, Fei Wu, Kun Kuang · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

On attention heads and bilinear forms

We study the symmetric and antisymmetric parts of bilinear forms in the attention heads of trained large language models. We introduce an orthogonally invariant profile map from real bilinear forms to a three-dimensional simplex and observe that profiles of trained bilinear forms accumulate near profiles of rank-one bi...

Andrew O'Desky · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Multi-Armed Bernoulli Bandits via Minimax Single-Arm Stopping

We develop an index policy for finite-horizon Bernoulli multi-armed bandits from minimax solutions to single-arm bandit (SAB) problems. Each SAB problem involves choosing between an unknown Bernoulli arm and a known reward. We show that minimizing worst-case regret of SAB problems over all non-anticipative policies adm...

Hui-Kang Liu, Zheng-Chao Wang, Daniel Kuhn et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Monotone-Constrained Diffusion Models for Long-Horizon Production Forecasting

Across three jurisdictions and more than 35,000 wells, under a shared-space, validation-frozen protocol, Physics-SIMS-TS is the most accurate diffusion forecaster in the comparison and is competitive with, but not superior to, ensembled transformer forecasters.

Temesgen Mikael Abraha, Yves Lucet · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Classification with Abstention Under Class-Conditional Error Constraints

This work describes the distribution-free minimax rate of excess abstention risk, up to logarithmic factors, in terms of the complexity of the hypothesis class and the sample size and introduces surrogate-loss formulations to make the framework amenable to computation with models such as neural networks.

Mohammadreza M. Kalan, Yu-Yang Deng, Sanaz Hamidi · 1 citation
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Statistical Inference for Adversarial Training: Central Limit Theorems via Optimal Transport

The purpose of this paper is to rigorously quantify the statistical and learning-theoretic properties of adversarial training models for classification. Equivalently, we establish the statistical properties of empirical optimal partial transport. Precisely, first we provide two types of central limit theorems (CLT): CL...

Kim Jakwang, Kwon Dohyun · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

CNA: An AI-Oriented Comprehensive Normalized Assessment for Healthy Status and Application to Optimize RRT Strategies by Reinforcement Learning

Millions worldwide require Renal Replacement Therapy (RRT) as a treatment essential for survival. However, optimizing RRT strategies via AI is challenging due to heterogeneous patient dynamics, missing data, and the absence of an AI-oriented health assessment criterion. We propose an AI-Oriented Comprehensive Normalize...

Jiang Liu, Chan Zhou, Yujie Li et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

UniGIO: Unified Generative Global In-situ Weather Modeling from Spatiotemporal Incomplete Observations

Global In-situ Observation (GIO) provides fine-scale, direct records of the global weather system from sparse point stations, making it an indispensable source for capturing localized and transient dynamics beyond the reach of satellite gridded data, and playing a critical role in key fields such as numerical weather p...

Songru Yang, Zili Liu, Tao Han et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

The Limits of Speculation: Bounding Speculative Decoding in Mixture-of-Experts

Speculative decoding in Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models faces the problem of unstable verification cost caused by input-dependent expert loading. To study the physics of this process, we formulate speculation-budget selection as an offline Stochastic Shortest Path (SSP) problem over reference sequences and build a diag...

Aidar Amankulov, Denis Mamatin · 0 citations

Think Short, Defer Smart, Act, and Repeat: Calibrated Reasoning and Uncertainty-Aware Deferral for Edge LLM Agents

This work proposes Think Short, Defer Smart (TSDS), a framework that synergistically integrates a lightweight convergence probe, which halts on-device reasoning once the intended action has stabilized, with a perplexity-based deferral rule that escalates uncertain actions to a cloud-side model.

Amirmohammad Farzaneh, Osvaldo Simeone · 1 citation

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Microsoft Research Blog Oct 6, 2026

What AI gets wrong and what failure teaches us

Jennifer Neville did not want to go into computer science—but that’s exactly where she landed. Neville discusses the starts and stops that led to her professional sweet spot and her work identifying “surprising failures” making it hard for AI to handle complexity.  The post What AI gets wrong and what failure teaches us appeared first on Microsoft Research.

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