Proteoform-resolved neoGFAP as a diagnostic and prognostic biomarker across the TBI--MCI--AD continuum in Veterans

Abstract

Service members with traumatic brain injury are at approximately two- to four-fold higher risk of Alzheimer's disease or related dementias than those without such an injury, with risk increasing with injury severity. The amyloid/tau/neurodegeneration biomarker framework treats amyloid, tau, and neurodegeneration as independent axes but omits astroglial injury, despite evidence that reactive astrogliosis (indexed by glial fibrillary acidic protein, GFAP) must be elevated for cognitive decline to occur in amyloid-positive individuals. Total GFAP immunoassays aggregate intact protein with multiple calpain- and caspase-cleaved proteoforms, blurring the biological signal. We compared a calpain-cleaved GFAP neoepitope, the glial fibrillary acidic protein neoepitope (neoGFAP), against total GFAP across the full traumatic brain injury--mild cognitive impairment--Alzheimer's disease continuum in Veterans using a two-stage plasma-to-cerebrospinal-fluid biomarker approach. A plasma triage gate combining phosphorylated tau 217 and amyloid beta 42 was applied to 367 unique subjects; a cerebrospinal-fluid benchmarking cohort of 57 subjects (controls, chronic blast traumatic brain injury, mild cognitive impairment, and Alzheimer's disease) received head-to-head neoGFAP and total GFAP measurement. In the whole benchmarking cohort, neoGFAP discriminated mild cognitive impairment plus Alzheimer's disease from non-Alzheimer subjects with an area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve of 0.81 versus 0.73 for total GFAP, a trend-level advantage that did not reach nominal significance. Within the gate-positive, amyloid-committed subset of 23 subjects, neoGFAP dominance became significant by McNemar's exact test (six discordant subjects favored neoGFAP, none the reverse). Across diagnostic contrasts, neoGFAP outperformed total GFAP for Alzheimer's disease versus control and, importantly for Veterans, for mild cognitive impairment versus chronic blast-exposed Veterans without cognitive impairment. In chronic blast injury, neoGFAP was paradoxically depleted relative to controls, consistent with tissue sequestration of aggregated proteoform fragments. Unbiased proteomic profiling confirmed coordinated elevation across astrocytic, neuronal, mitochondrial, and microglial compartments. An exploratory subject-level reclassification improved accuracy from 71.1 percent using plasma alone to 79.5 percent with added cerebrospinal-fluid markers and age. In a same-cohort ProQuantum replication (n=57), CSF neoGFAP preserved its discrimination advantage over total GFAP for MCI+AD versus non-AD (AUROC 0.76 vs 0.72; cross-platform Spearman {rho}=0.84), while plasma neoGFAP achieved AUROC 0.90, comparable to pTau217 (0.92) and exceeding A{beta}42/40 (0.84). In this small sample, neoGFAP is a superior proteoform-resolved diagnostic and prognostic biomarker across the continuum and supports adding an astroglial-proteoform axis to amyloid/tau/neurodegeneration biomarker frameworks in high-risk populations.