Births are difficult to predict even with rich survey and full-population register data
Elizaveta SivakEmily M. CantrellThomas EmeryJavier Garcia-BernardoFlavio HafnerKasia KarpinskaMalte L\"ukenAdrienne MendrikJoris MulderHanzhang RenVarun SatishMark VerhagenAngelica M. MaineriPaulina PankowskaJasmin Abdel GhanyBruno ArpinoGiovanni CassaniJulia HellstrandKatya IvanovaSanni KuikkaAna MacanovicCharles RahalFelix C. TropfRoland J. VeenNicole WalasekDani\"el van WijkKelsey Q. WrightEmilio ZagheniHenry AbbinkEmanuele AlivertiMatteo AmestoyTilbe AtavNicola BarbanSunnee BillingsleyGoan J. BooijLouis BoucherieYael BroosLi Ya ChangJamie C. ChiuChiara Ludovica ComolliBoris CuleQixiang FangDennis M. FeehanRachel GanlyErwin GielensRolando M. Gonzales MartinezAndrea GradassiRosember Guerra-UrzolaMario Guerra-UrzolaSt\'ephane GuerrierEnamul HassanVincent A. HaverhoekAndrew T. HendricksonAmber HowardYuxuan JinSayash KapoorErik-Jan van KesterenIris ten KloosterMarie LabussiereLydia T. LiuTiffany LiuAdam MaghoutSimone MeneghelloLasse MohrClara H. MulderSaul J. NewmanJessica Nis\'enJanis NordenMikkel OdgaardRiccardo OmentiOzancan OzdemirChristina PaoPaige ParkGaia PentaJuan C. PerdomoTanzir PialAlessio PiracciniFederica QuerinZiwei RaoChristian RellamaAdrien RemundFrederieke RichertArnout van de RijtMojtaba Rostami KandroodiStijn J. RotmanLucas SageGermans SavcisensKatrin SchwanitzSteven SkienaAlessandro SpataYannick StadtfeldBenedikt StroeblGaetano TedescoMathilde TheelenGianluca ToriAbigail Tun-MendicutiRishabh TyagiKeyon VafaLuiz Felipe VecchiettiLinda VecgaileWillem R. J. VermeulenMaria-Pia Victoria FeserLionel A. VoirolThom B. VolkerXinran WangJiani YanXinyi ZhaoFlora ZhouZuzana ZilincikovaMalvina NissimMatthew J. SalganikGert Stulp
Sep 2026
Machine Learning
Abstract
Major life events have proven difficult to predict. Does this reflect limits of theory, data, and algorithms, or the large role of chance? We examine one outcome - having a child within three years - through a near-ideal setting for prediction: a data challenge where 147 researchers predicted births for Dutch residents aged 18-45, using survey data and full-population registers. Methods ranged from logistic regression to a large language model and transformers. Predictions were moderately accurate (best F1: register 0.59, survey 0.76); advanced models did not outperform classical ones; and the larger registers did not beat the survey. Simulating the stochastic biology of conception and pregnancy, we estimated a predictive ceiling (survey F1 ~ 0.86-0.94, register 0.88-0.96). Observed performance falls short of this ceiling, implicating imperfect data, methods, and unmodelled chance, while the ceiling itself shows that chance in reproduction alone sets a non-trivial limit on predicting individual lives.
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