Observability-Aware Estimation of Tradeable Vehicle-to-Grid Capacity from Heterogeneous Charger Telemetry

Abstract

Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) aggregators must commit energy and power that connected vehicles can actually deliver, yet they often observe only charger-side telemetry, and vehicle-reported state of charge (SOC) is optional or non-authoritative. This paper proposes an observability-aware framework for estimating tradeable V2G capacity: each session is classified by its measurement boundary, channels, sampling, latency, and setpoint control, then mapped to the battery through uncertain conversion paths. The estimator outputs conservative safe energy and safe power rather than absolute SOC, treats vehicle-reported values as noisy hints, and abstains when observability is insufficient. A reproducible synthetic study shows that regularization and a split-conformal margin bring the bound to the 95% target with a finite-sample guarantee under within-regime exchangeability, and that the required capacity haircut grows from about 2.6 through 4.3 to 6.5 SOC points as observability degrades. Coverage alone does not distinguish the method, since any conformalized predictor reaches the target; the observability-aware bound adds tradeable capacity at that coverage, and its advantage grows as telemetry degrades. End-to-end market deliverability is established only in synthesis: a laboratory proof of concept on one bidirectional charger with four production vehicles demonstrates AC-boundary telemetry ingestion and capability assignment, but measures realized throughput after the fact rather than a bound committed before dispatch.