Aug 2026· Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Gaussian Processes and Bayesian Inference
Abstract
Bayesian Geometric Chaos with Adaptive Constraint Propagation represents a novel approach to modeling complex systems, particularly those exhibiting intricate dynamics and high-dimensional parameter spaces. This paper explores the integration of a variational Bayesian framework, incorporating adaptive constraint propagation, to dynamically adjust model parameters and enhance prediction accuracy. Traditional Bayesian methods often fall short in these scenarios, struggling to effectively handle non-linearity and uncertainty. Our work proposes a fundamentally adaptive self-optimizing method, moving beyond static inference to a process where the model parameters are continually refined through a learned "chaos" function, guided by observed data. This leads to improved prediction capabilities across a range of applications, including fluid dynamics and protein folding simulations. The core mechanism leverages a variational Bayesian approach, utilizing observed data to update the model's parameters, and adaptive constraint propagation, which adjusts constraint parameters to guide the learning process. We demonstrate the efficacy of this framework through a series of simulations and analysis, highlighting its potential for addressing limitations of existing Bayesian methods.
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