Let $X = (X_1, \ldots, X_n)$ be a random vector from any Borel probability law on $\mathbb{R}_+^n$. We revisit the problem of deriving a lower confidence bound (LCB) on a scalar parameter of that law. We recast classical work, beginning with Buehler, in purely probabilistic terms to form a more accessible and extensible framework. We then specialize the framework to the case where the components of $X$ are independent. In this context, we prove that Gaffke's bound is Buehler optimal for the order that it induces with respect to the maximum marginal mean parameter: $max_{i \in [n]} E_Q[X_i]$, which reduces to the common mean when the $X_i$ are independent and identically distributed. That is to say, no other valid LCB that orders samples in the same way as Gaffke's bound can improve on it with respect to this parameter.
Given observations $\mathbf x=(x_1,\dots,x_n)$, Gaffke (2005) defined \[ K_n(\mathbf x)=\mathbb{P}_{\mathbf D}\!\left\{\sum_{i=1}^n x_iD_i\le 1\right\}, \qquad (D_0,D_1,\ldots,D_n)\sim\mathrm{Dirichlet}(1,\ldots,1), \] and conjectured that it is a $p$-value whenever the inputs are independent e-values. Recently, Vlassis and Thomas (2026) proved this conjecture. Inverting the tests for observations in $[0,1]$ gives the confidence interval studied by Learned-Miller and Thomas (2020), which reduces to Clopper--Pearson for Bernoulli data. We give a finite- and large-sample account of Gaffke's test and interval. First, for every $\mathbf x\in[0,\infty)^n$ and every elementary symmetric polynomial $e_k$, \( K_n(\mathbf x)e_k(\mathbf x)\le {n\choose k}, \) so the Gaffke $p$-value never larger than the SymPol $p$-value of Ming et al. (2026). However, Gaffke's p-value is inadmissible. For $n=2$, we construct a valid rule that is strictly smaller on mixed configurations and is the unique admissible rule that dominates $K_2$. A neutral-face extension proves inadmissibility of $K_n$ for every $n\ge2$. If one independent uniform random variable is allowed, there is an even simpler full-dimensional improvement: on the upper orthant, where $K_n(\mathbf x)=1/\prod_i x_i$, replace it by $U/\prod_i x_i$. The equal-tail Gaffke confidence interval $I_n$ is nevertheless first-order asymptotically efficient: for iid observations on $[0,1]$ with unknown variance $\sigma^2>0$, \[ \sqrt n\,\operatorname{Width}(I_n)\longrightarrow 2\sigma z_{1-\alpha/2}\qquad\text{almost surely}. \] Our simulations also find that, among a variety of bounded-mean intervals considered, the Gaffke interval is the shortest, including comparisons with a recent empirical Berry--Esseen procedure having the same first-order Gaussian target.
Jiahao Ming, Aaditya Ramdas, Yi Shen et al.· 4 citations· ⚡1
We give upper and lower bounds for the number of solutions of the equation $e_n(x,y) = g$ in the group $W_k=(C_p\wr C_{p^k})^2$, where $e_n(x,y)$ is the $n$-th Engel word and $g\in W_k$. We obtain several corollaries from this. First, we prove a stronger version of the Amit-Ashurst conjecture for Engel words in $W_k$. We also prove that Engel words are not probabilistic identities in profinite groups with arbitrarily large wreath product quotients $W_k$. To conclude, we construct closed subsets of $(C_p\wr\Z_p)^2$ with positive Haar measure, empty-interior, and which are the preimage of an Engel word map.
Let $X_1,X_2,\ldots$ be independent $\mathrm{Bernoulli}(\theta)$ random variables, and let $\bar X_n = n^{-1}(X_1 + \cdots + X_n)$. We prove that, for every real $p \geq 1$, the sequence $\{\mathsf{E}(\bar X_n^p)\}_{n \geq 1}$ is log-convex. This proves the Bernoulli case of a conjecture of Lamkin and Tkocz [Canad. Math. Bull., 65(2):271-278, 2022]. The proof conditions on the total number of successes among $2n$ trials and reduces the desired inequality to a convex-order comparison between two normalized quadratic functions of hypergeometric random variables. All the log-convexity inequalities are strict for $p>1$ and $0<\theta<1$.
Consider $n$ independent, non-negative, mean at most one random variables, $X_1,X_2,\ldots$. We show the following bound on the probability of their sum exceeding a threshold $t$: \[ \mathbb{P}\left[\sum_{i=1}^n X_i\ge t\right] \leq 1-\left(1-\frac{1}{t}\right)^n \text{ for all } t\ge 2n+1 \,. \] To prove this, we consider a relaxed optimization problem over a set of sequences of ordered, but non-independent random variables. This allows us to reformulate it recursively as dynamic programming problem. The bound becomes an equality for the binary i.i.d.~random variables satisfying $\mathbb{P}\left[X_i=0\right]= 1-\frac{1}{t}$ and $\mathbb{P}\left[X_i=t\right]=\frac{1}{t}$, which remains the maximizer in the relaxed problem.
Let $g_n$ be the largest number of Euclidean balls of diameter $1$ which may be needed to cover a set of diameter $1$ in $\mathbb{R}^n$. We study this problem for finite sets invariant under all coordinate permutations. We prove that the exponential growth rate in this symmetric problem can be characterized exactly as a finite-alphabet squared-error rate-distortion supremum $\alpha_0$. Specialized to the two-point case, i.e., for subsets of Boolean cubes, this gives the explicit lower bound \[g_n\ge (1.160235457\ldots-o(1))^n,\] improving the previous best bound $(2/\sqrt3-o(1))^n$. Using Fix's Gaussian characterization of the rate-distortion problem, we give a numerical three-point construction with exponent base greater than $1.160497831$. Finally, we show that $\alpha_0$ is not attained by any finitely supported distribution.
Andrii Arman, A. Bondarenko, A. Prymak et al.· 0 citations
We give explicit complex polynomials $P,Q$ in three independent standard real Gaussian variables such that \[ {\mathbb E}(P^m)=0,\qquad {\mathbb E}(QP^m)=m!\neq0 \] for every $m\geq1$. In natural complex linear coordinates, $P$ has five terms and total degree $4$. Hence the Gaussian Moments Conjecture is false in every dimension $n\geq3$. We also give a six-term cubic example in four variables, which was found first and already proves failure for every $n\geq4$. Both examples follow from the same coefficient identity. The search was prompted by Levent Alp\"oge's public announcement of an explicit three-dimensional counterexample to the Jacobian Conjecture. Although the main theorem of Derksen, van den Essen, and Zhao is stated globally in dimension, its proof has fixed-dimensional content: a noninvertible cubic-homogeneous Keller map in $r$ variables forces the failure of ${\mathrm GMC}(2r)$. Tracking a standard Bass--Connell--Wright reduction of the announced map gives a conservative cubic-homogeneous counterexample in $79$ variables, and hence a route-based failure of ${\mathrm GMC}(158)$. That route is nonconstructive at the final Gaussian step and does not furnish explicit polynomials $P,Q$. The much smaller explicit failures in dimensions $4$ and $3$ below were not derived from the announced Jacobian map.