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#generative ai Open access

Generative AI use and the 2022–2025 decline in PISA performance across countries

Oct 2026
Artificial Intelligence in Education

Abstract

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) has spread rapidly among students since 2022, and PISA 2025 recorded its lowest results. In a preregistered study, we related four independent country-level AI-use measures to the mathematics, reading and science PISA performance of 15-year-olds. Countries with more AI use scored higher, but, critically, they also tended to show larger declines or smaller gains between 2022 and 2025, as predicted. This association was no longer detectable after adjusting for 2018 performance, before generative AI existed. AI use was unrelated to change from 2015 to 2018, but some measures were associated with declines from 2018 to 2022, during the pandemic, mainly in mathematics. The spread of country means, stable since 2015, narrowed by 7–9% from 2022 to 2025, as upper-middle performers lost and some low performers, which tend to use AI less, gained relative ground. These patterns suggest AI may have contributed to the recent decline.

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