Introduction Oracle-dependent DeFi protocols execute collateral valuations, liquidations, and settlements based on reported data. Methods We model oracle integrity and attack pressure as coupled positive states in a controlled jump-diffusion. Multiplicative shocks preserve the integrity state space while separating continuous variation from discrete attack windows. Scenario inputs are anchored to 24 documented oracle-related incidents, an oracle-consumer exposure panel, and Chainlink metadata covering 1,669 feeds across 29 networks. A positivity-preserving log-Euler scheme simulates Baseline, Stress, and Controlled configurations. Results The corresponding 10-year collapse probabilities are 10.1%, 93.0%, and 0% across 4,000 paths, with a one-sided 95% upper bound of 0.09% for the Controlled configuration. Within the sampled parameter ranges, pressure decay has the strongest rank association with simulated collapse probability. Discussion These results are scenario diagnostics, not causal estimates of protocol controls.
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