A synthetic player population is constructed whose traits are ground truth by construction, and an opportunity-aware decision-moment representation is introduced that disentangles preference from the chance to express it; ablating it selectively degrades opportunity-dependent traits.
Abstract
Personalized game generation requires inferring a player's abilities and behavioral style from how they play. Large language models have made this inference more attainable than ever: an LLM can read a raw gameplay transcript and produce a fluent, plausible profile of the player. Plausible, however, is not verified, and verification is precisely what the field lacks: latent traits are unobservable; questionnaires provide noisy proxies and become circular when self-reports are used to validate behavior-based inference; and behavior itself is ambiguous without context -- a player who never collects an item may not want it, or may never have had the chance. We address both problems. First, we construct a synthetic player population whose traits are ground truth by construction: each trait is an explicit bot parameter, accepted only after controlled manipulation produces consistent, trait-specific behavioral change. Unlike prior parameter-recovery work that inverts a known decision model, our benchmark evaluates policy-agnostic inference from behavioral transcripts alone. Second, we introduce an opportunity-aware decision-moment representation that disentangles preference from the chance to express it; ablating it selectively degrades opportunity-dependent traits. On this benchmark, few-shot LLM inference outperforms embedding- and rule-based baselines on most traits, though feature-based supervised regressors remain stronger overall. Finally, we close the loop: inferred profiles drive difficulty adaptation, evaluated against ground-truth references and mismatched-profile controls, and an exploratory human study examines whether these findings transfer to real players.
The analysis first benchmarks naive and behavioral models against interpretable machine learning and deep learning models, then evaluates the modified EWA specifications of prior work against these benchmarks and uses the LASSO diagnostics to motivate a further nested frequency tracking extension.
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