Innovation Diffusion Under Conditions of Global Polycrisis

Abstract

Technological diffusion is no longer governed by the orderly S‑curve models of Rogers or the convergence assumptions of classical development economics. Under conditions of global polycrisis—where climate volatility, extreme pollution, sovereign debt distress, geoeconomic fragmentation, and armed conflict interact as self‑reinforcing systemic shocks—the foundational architecture enabling technological catch‑up has fractured. As the monograph states, “distinct macro‑crises fuse into self‑reinforcing feedback loops, generating nonlinear cascading disruptions across cross-border knowledge flows, supply chains, and domestic absorptive capacity” . Across the Global South, frontier technologies such as solar PV, digital infrastructure, advanced manufacturing systems, and clean mobility face simultaneous physical, financial, and geopolitical constraints. Extreme heat derates hardware performance, particulate pollution erodes human cognitive capital, and conflict-driven supply chain chokepoints delay critical components by months. Sovereign debt overhang and currency depreciation inflate capital costs to prohibitive levels—“borrowing rates between 14% and 22%” compared to 3.5–5% in OECD economies —trapping nations in fossil‑fuel lock‑in despite lower long‑run costs of clean technologies. Geoeconomic fragmentation further splinters global technology stacks, forcing developing economies into incompatible dual systems and exposing them to weaponized export controls. Meanwhile, proprietary IP thickets impose licensing rents of 15–25% of project capex, structurally blocking domestic manufacturing and adaptation of critical climate technologies. In response, new diffusion pathways are emerging. Frugal engineering and modular, repairable architectures reduce capital intensity by up to 90%, enabling resilient deployment in high‑stress environments. South‑South technology corridors—now surpassing North‑South agreements—provide tropicalized, open‑standard solutions insulated from geopolitical coercion. Digital Public Infrastructure built on open-source rails maintains 86–98% uptime during climate and grid shocks, functioning as a systemic resilience backbone. Grassroots fabrication networks restore 64–82% of broken clean technologies, multiplying uptime by 2.6–4.1× through localized repair ecosystems. The monograph concludes that technological convergence in the polycrisis era requires a new governance architecture: sovereign debt‑for‑technology swaps, multilateral de‑risking vaults, open hardware commons, South‑South clearing rails, and mission‑oriented absorptive capacity investments. Only through these coordinated reforms can developing economies overcome the dissolution of leapfrogging assumptions and achieve durable, climate‑resilient technological adoption.