Convergence in Asia This Century

Abstract

Asia is entering a century defined by a powerful interaction between economic growth, technological diffusion, human‑development gains and rising adaptive capacity. The report argues that convergence is no longer a simple GDP catch‑up story but a reinforcing development system in which capital accumulation, innovation, regional production networks, digital infrastructure, and increasingly capable public institutions compound over decades. As the document states, “Asia is likely to experience one of the largest absolute episodes of economic and human‑development convergence in modern history during the twenty‑first century.” Rapid growth in South, East and Southeast Asia continues to expand fiscal and technological capacity, while mass digital adoption—77% internet use in 2025—creates a substrate for fast diffusion of AI, automation, clean energy, mobility and modern logistics. Cost‑compressed technologies produced within Asia accelerate catch‑up by enabling late adopters to leapfrog older systems. Extreme poverty has fallen to low single digits, shifting the development frontier toward reliable energy, water, sanitation, healthcare, education and environmental quality. As the report notes, “The meaningful end point of convergence is…a wider distribution of secure, healthy and technologically enabled living standards.” The principal drag is the polycrisis: climate change, extreme heat, flooding, water stress, ecological degradation, demographic shifts and geopolitical fragmentation. Scenario modeling suggests climate damages could reduce developing Asia‑Pacific GDP by 17% by 2070 under high‑end emissions pathways. Yet rising adaptive capacity—resilient infrastructure, cooling, water security, clean energy, and institutional strength—can preserve gains and reinforce long‑run convergence. By 2100, Asia could become a multi‑center innovation system with far smaller gaps in basic capability across regions. Convergence succeeds if innovation, diffusion and resilience compound faster than systemic stress, reducing the penalty of being born in a poorer region and transforming Asia into a global engine of technological and human‑development progress.