Spatial Analysis of Cancer Diseases and Their Relationship with Air Pollution in Baghdad City
TL;DR
The results demonstrate an obvious association among high levels of air pollutants, industrialization, and socio-economic status with a higher incidence of cancer in Baghdad and emphasize the urgent need for effective air quality management policies, relocation of heavy industries outside residential zones, and strengthened environmental health monitoring to reduce the escalating cancer risks in Baghdad.
Abstract
Baghdad is one of the most polluted urban centers in the world. According to reported data, it has many power plants, industrial areas, and oil refineries within or near its residential communities. Continued exposure to toxic gases and fine particulate matter creates serious concerns for public health, especially when evaluating the risk of developing cancer. This study examines the incidence of cancer among 2,783 patients treated in hospitals located within the Al-Karkh and Al-Rusafa districts in Baghdad over two years: 2023 (2,783) and 2024 (2,973). Also, environmental data (i.e., nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), or carbon monoxide (CO)) for both years were provided by the Sentinel-5P satellite. The results of both spatial analysis and statistical analysis demonstrate an obvious association among high levels of air pollutants, industrialization, and socio-economic status with a higher incidence of cancer. The three districts with the greatest concentrations of NO2 and SO2 are Sadr City, Aldoura (home to the Doura Oil Refinery), and Al-Shaab, and they have a significantly greater cancer burden than other districts. In Sadr City, heavy traffic and small industries create the bulk of the pollution, while in Aldoura, the emissions from the Doura Oil Refinery account for the majority of the pollution. Using statistical analysis, the strength of NO2 as a positive correlation with lung cancer (R = 0.72, p < 0.05), the strength of SO2 as a positive correlation with bladder cancer (R = 0.68, p < 0.05), and a weaker correlation for CO for all types of cancer were determined. Further support from the calculated Pearson correlation coefficients for each of the pollutant-cancer pairs across the board showed that NO2 and SO2 had the two highest R values for lung cancer and bladder cancer, respectively. Chi-square tests reinforced these results, indicating that districts with elevated NO2 and SO2 levels were statistically more likely to report higher cancer cases (p < 0.05). These findings emphasize the urgent need for effective air quality management policies, relocation of heavy industries outside residential zones, and strengthened environmental health monitoring to reduce the escalating cancer risks in Baghdad.