TEMPORAL TRENDS IN PANCREATIC CANCER MORTALITY IN BRAZIL BETWEEN 1980 AND 2023: ARE WE ALIGNED WITH THE GLOBAL PROJECTIONS?

Abstract

ABSTRACT Background: Pancreatic cancer (PC) is a highly lethal malignancy with rising incidence and mortality rates, although its burden remains poorly investigated in Brazil. Understanding its regional and sex-specific trends is critical for tailoring public health interventions and mitigating the disease’s impact in the Brazilian population. Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the temporal trends in PC mortality among Brazilian individuals between 1980 and 2023 and its alignment with the global projections. Methods: This retrospective, population-based ecological study analyzed PC mortality data using the Sistema de Informação de Mortalidade (SIM) and demographic data from the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). Annual Percent Change (APC) calculations were performed to assess temporal trends by Brazilian geographic regions and sex, accounting for demographic shifts over time. Results: A total of 257,671 PC-related deaths occurred during the study period, averaging 5,856 deaths per year. The overall mortality trend for PC in Brazil showed a continuous increase of (APC: 1.23; 95%CI: 1.16-1.32; P-value <0.01). Regional analyses revealed significant increases in the North (APC: 2.32), South (APC: 0.59), and Midwest (APC: 1.45) regions. Sex-specific trends indicated a steady increase for women throughout the period, while men experienced alternating phases of rising and stationary trends. Conclusion: PC mortality in Brazil has risen significantly over the past four decades, with marked regional and sex-specific disparities, aligning with global perspectives. These findings highlight the need for targeted PC prevention, early detection, and equitable access to high-quality cancer care, particularly in vulnerable regions and populations.