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data science

2,654 papers

#artificial intelligence Preprint Jul 2026

Pay Only for Disagreement: Certified No-Regression Verdicts for Model Updates with Matching Label-Complexity Bounds

This work formalizes update promotion as certified paired risk-difference auditing as well as building DISCERN, a sequential two-tier protocol that proves finite-sample validity and matching label-complexity bounds of order rho^2/eps^2 at the rate level.

Vishnu Balachandran · 2 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Sep 2026

Bad Genius: Counterfactual-Guided Harness Evolution Beyond Task-Specific Shortcuts

This work introduces Counterfactual Harness Search and Evolution (CHASE), which casts harness evolution as constraint generation over valid counterfactual benchmarks and formalizes an ideal shortcut-neutralized benchmark $B_0$ and establishes theoretical guarantees linking finite counterfactual archives to $B_0$ and ch...

Guo-Jun Zhu, Xu Huang, Peng Yin et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

Random Hazard Forests

Clinical data sources such as electronic health records and wearable sensors record patient status repeatedly over follow-up, often at irregular times and on different schedules for different measurements. These data create opportunities for continuously updated, individualized risk prediction. Existing approaches, how...

Hemant Ishwaran, Eileen M. Hsich, Udaya B. Kogalur et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

Missing Data Imputation under Manifold Hypothesis

The manifold hypothesis posits that high-dimensional data are concentrated near a low-dimensional embedded manifold. Recent advances in mixture variational autoencoders (VAEs) provide a powerful tool for extracting such underlying structure in a faithful manner. The resulting geometric structure naturally introduces lo...

Zelong Bi, Amuchechukwu Ibenegbu, Sarat Moka · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

Universal Feature Selection with Noisy Observations and Weak Symmetry Conditions

This paper relaxes the restrictive symmetry conditions adopted in [4], [5] and extends their universal feature selection framework to accommodate noisy observations as well as attribute structures that may exhibit directional preferences. We introduce the notion of weak spherical symmetry, quantified by second-moment d...

Dier Tang (Department of Mathematics, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong et al. · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Open access Mar 2026

Equivalence of approximation by networks of single- and multi-spike neurons

It is shown that for every approximation bound that is valid for a set of multi-spike neural networks, there is an equivalent set of single-spike neural networks with only linearly more (or less) neurons, in the maximum number of spikes, for which the bound holds.

Dominik Dold, Philipp C. Petersen · 2 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

Nonnegative matrix factorizations and related compositional models: Equivalence, identifiability, and an application on the grain-size analysis of sediments

Across fields such as machine learning, social science, and geology, considerable attention has been given to models that factorize a nonnegative matrix into the product of two or three matrices, subject to nonnegative or row-sum-to-1 constraints. Although these models are to a large extent similar or even equivalent,...

Qianqian Qi, Peter G. M. van der Heijden, Maarten A. Prins · 0 citations

Neural Stochastic Differential Equations on Compact State-Spaces

A novel class of expressive SDEs whose solutions are provably confined to a prescribed compact polyhedral state space, matching the domains of EMA data is developed, paving the way for principled, trustworthy continuous-time models of suicide risk and other clinical time series.

Yue Liu, Malinda Lu, Matthew K. Nock et al. · 1 citation

BASIS: Batchwise Advantage Estimation from Single-Rollout Information Sharing for LLM Reasoning

BASIS, a critic-free post-training algorithm designed to address the tradeoff between computational efficiency and sample efficiency in value estimation and policy learning, achieves performance close to multi-rollout GRPO-type baselines and often outperforms single-rollout REINFORCE-type baselines.

Shi-Jin Gong, Erhan Xu, Kai Ye et al. · 2 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

Training Energy-Based Models with Non-MCMC Samplers and Efficient Temperature Estimation

Efficient sampling from Boltzmann distributions over discrete variables is a fundamental operation in a wide range of applications. While fast non-MCMC samplers have recently emerged as promising alternatives to conventional MCMC methods, their practical use for probabilistic learning remains hindered by the difficulty...

Kentaro Kubo, Hayato Goto · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Conformal Policy Learning with Distribution-Free Safety Guarantees

Conformal policy learning (CPL) is proposed, a policy learning procedure with a new distribution-free safety guarantee that controls the probability of assigning treatment to an individual who would be harmed relative to control and achieves asymptotically optimal welfare subject to the safety constraint.

Ying Jin, Naoki Egami · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Splitting the Difference: Interpretable Causal Forests for Treatment Effect Heterogeneity and Bias

In various fields, such as medicine and marketing, accurately predicting individual treatment effects holds significant promise. However, achieving reliable predictions alone is often insufficient for making informed decisions; it is equally important to understand why the treatment effect is higher for some individual...

N. Ihlo, Merle Behr · 0 citations

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Microsoft Research Blog Oct 6, 2026

What AI gets wrong and what failure teaches us

Jennifer Neville did not want to go into computer science—but that’s exactly where she landed. Neville discusses the starts and stops that led to her professional sweet spot and her work identifying “surprising failures” making it hard for AI to handle complexity.  The post What AI gets wrong and what failure teaches us appeared first on Microsoft Research.

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