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2,653 papers
Judge-specific sensitivity is useful for aggregating pairwise LLM evaluations, but its interpretation depends on which systematic presentation effects the ranking model includes. We introduce OSCAR, an order-aware framework for scoring and calibrating AI rankings, and study position as one such effect. In released judg...
Black-box machine learning models increasingly deliver strong predictions, but extracting useful information from them, such as a set of important features, remains challenging. Existing model-agnostic methods primarily estimate feature importance or conduct inference on it rather than directly selecting features, wher...
Causal Bayesian Optimization (CBO) combines causal inference with Bayesian optimization to enable sample-efficient intervention selection in systems with causal structure. This survey provides a systematic review of CBO through a unified BO-loop perspective, showing how causal assumptions shape intervention search spac...
We develop exponential family synthetic controls (EFSC), a distributional version of synthetic controls for a panel of datasets. Each cell of the panel corresponds to a dataset drawn from an exponential family whose natural parameters factorize probabilistically across units and times. We estimate the latent factors us...
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Robust linear fits can resist response contamination yet remain too dense or unstable for useful global explanations. We propose penalized distillation, which fits a smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) estimator to a robust initial estimator's empirical fitted surface along a safeguarded coordinate-descent path...
Density-Ratio Rescoring (DRR) augments a classifier trained at the original class prior with a survey-raking dual score. Raking reweights the majority sample to match minority feature moments within a tolerance. DRR marginally standardizes the dual and base scores and combines them with a fixed weight of one half, usin...
The Generalized Naive Bayes (GNB) model was introduced for discrete and categorical random variables as an extension of classic Naive Bayes. We now accommodate the GNB framework to continuous explanatory variables. A central result of the paper is that structure learning of the GNB depends only on the pair copulas of t...
TEMPER, the Temporal Encoder-Masked Probabilistic Ensemble Regressor, a univariate time-series forecasting algorithm that combines a temporal autoencoder, a differentiable masked neural decision forest, continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) training, and Gaussian-mixture post-processing is presented.
PACE (Plug-and-Play Contextual Embedding) inserts a frozen tabular foundation model (TFM) column encoder before an existing feature-scoring rule, expanding each feature into a higher-dimensional contextual representation, positioning pretrained column geometry as a reusable upstream primitive for tabular learning.
Bayesian filtering provides a principled framework for online state estimation under uncertainty, yet its application to systems with high-dimensional states and complicated posterior distributions remains challenging. Recent generative models, such as flow matching, have shown potential in Bayesian filtering. However,...
High-dimensional count data are common in scientific applications, but most diffusion and flow models are designed for continuous or categorical data, and generation often requires many sequential model evaluations. We propose Count Flow Map, a generative model that learns finite-time transitions directly in count spac...
The Deck-of-cards-based Ordinal Regression (DOR) infers a value function from a ranking of reference alternatives in which the Decision Maker (DM) inserts blank cards between consecutive levels to express preference intensity. DOR, and its stochastic extension (SMAA-DOR), treat these answers as hard constraints definin...
MIT Statistics and Data Science Center Director Alexander (Sasha) Rakhlin shares important considerations for departments and institutions.
By rethinking how large cloud computing systems operate, Associate Professor Christina Delimitrou seeks to make data centers more energy efficient.
As director, Bourg has focused on digital access, open and equitable scholarly publishing, and expanded support for data-intensive research.
Jennifer Neville did not want to go into computer science—but that’s exactly where she landed. Neville discusses the starts and stops that led to her professional sweet spot and her work identifying “surprising failures” making it hard for AI to handle complexity. The post What AI gets wrong and what failure teaches us appeared first on Microsoft Research.
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