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data science

2,618 papers

#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Nonparametric In-Context Learning under Growing Geometric Complexity: Minimax Optimality and Local Geometry-Adaptivity of Transformers

These results identify conditions under which the resulting predictor exploits local geometry and attains the aggregate minimax rate, and derive an in-context generalization bound for near empirical risk minimizers over this class.

J. Seo, Jisu Kim · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Equation discovery with Bayesian tree-adjoining grammars

Bayesian TAGs are demonstrated to be well suited to quantifying uncertainty in equation discovery for dynamical systems and to fitting physics-informed models.

C. Lindley, N. Dervilis, Keith Worden · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Geometric Moment Contraction for Stochastic Nesterov Acceleration

We study geometric moment contraction (GMC) of the constant-parameter stochastic Nesterov recursion \[ Y_k=\Theta_k+\beta(\Theta_k-\Theta_{k-1}),\qquad \Theta_{k+1}=Y_k-\gamma G(Y_k,X_{k+1}). \] Under mean strong monotonicity and stochastic $L^p$ Lipschitz continuity, an explicit Perron comparison proves synchronous $L...

Wei-Biao Wu · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

A Flatness-Generalization Relation in the Teacher-Student Tree-Committee Machine

The flatness of the loss landscape at a minimizer is a widely used heuristic for reasoning about neural-network generalization, yet evidence for this relation is mostly empirical and controversial. We study this relation in a teacher-student tree committee machine, where both the ERM estimator and the Hessian spectrum...

B. Annesi, Davide Straziota, E. M. Malatesta · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Conformal Prediction under Exponential-Tilt Joint Shift

This work uses Exponential Tilt Reweighting Alignment (ExTRA), introduced for classification by Maity et al. (2023), to estimate structured distribution shifts and compares using its estimated weights in conformal calibration with additionally tilting the source predictive distribution.

Seung-Jin Choi · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

TR-SSQP: A Trust-Region Method for Constrained Stochastic Optimization under Heavy-Tailed Noise

We consider stochastic nonlinear optimization problems with deterministic equality constraints. While unconstrained stochastic optimization is well understood, the interplay between optimality and feasibility in the constrained setting poses significant challenges. Moreover, existing theoretical guarantees for constrai...

Hao-Xuan Wang, Yu-Chen Fang, Sen Na · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Parameter Estimation for Unnormalized Discrete Models via Empirically Localized Deformed Bregman Divergence

The technique of empirical localization makes it possible to drastically reduce computational cost of the calculation of the normalization constant, and appropriate choice of the deformation for the Bregman divergence can invest the proposed estimator with various kinds of favorable statistical properties, such as effi...

Takashi Takenouchi · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

MARCEDES: Score-based causal discovery under non-Gaussianity with continuous optimization

A score-based DAG learning method, named MARCEDES, formulated as an unconstrained score minimization problem, which can be efficiently solved using gradient-based optimization techniques, thereby circumventing the challenges associated with constrained optimization.

Anamitra Chaudhuri, A. Bhattacharya, Yang Ni · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Learning to Replace MCMC in Split-Gibbs Diffusion Posterior Sampling via Deep Unfolding

A learning-based framework is proposed to replace this MCMC step by reformulating both Gibbs updates as Gaussian denoising problems and implementing them through ODE diffusion, resulting in an alternative to MCMC-based split Gibbs at lower likelihood-update cost.

Yi Zhang, Rui Guo, Meng-Chu Xu et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification for fMRI Functional Connectivity via Simulation-Based Inference

Together these findings provide concrete, scanner-specific guidance for protocol optimization, with direct implications for reducing acquisition costs and improving the reliability of connectivity-based clinical biomarkers, and provide code enabling researchers to derive principled uncertainty bounds from their own dat...

Simon Carter, Ze-Ming Kuang, L. Mujica-Parodi et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

An End-to-End Pipeline for Causal ML with Continuous Treatments: An Application to Financial Decision Making

An end-to-end causal machine learning pipeline designed for real-world applications with continuous treatments that offers a more computationally efficient approach and produces less biased estimates compared to standard methods for problems with continuous treatment and high-dimensional data is presented.

Javier Moral, Clara Higuera-Cabañes, Álvaro Ibrain · 2 citations

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Microsoft Research Blog Oct 6, 2026

What AI gets wrong and what failure teaches us

Jennifer Neville did not want to go into computer science—but that’s exactly where she landed. Neville discusses the starts and stops that led to her professional sweet spot and her work identifying “surprising failures” making it hard for AI to handle complexity.  The post What AI gets wrong and what failure teaches us appeared first on Microsoft Research.

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