A Patient Simulation Framework for Risk Assessment of Conversational Healthcare AI: Evaluation of an Antidepressant Decision Aid

Abstract

Objective: This study develops and validates a patient simulation framework that aligns with the National Institute of Standards and Technology AI Risk Management Framework MAP and MEASURE functions, providing an empirical basis for identifying and characterizing performance risks in conversational clinical AI across medical, linguistic, and behavioral patient variation. We applied the framework to a conversational decision aid for antidepressant selection in major depressive disorder. Methods: The simulator integrates three profile dimensions: (1) medical profiles constructed from All of Us electronic health records using risk-ratio gating; (2) linguistic profiles modeling a health literacy gradient and condition-specific communication; and (3) behavioral profiles representing cooperative, distracted, and adversarial engagement. We generated 500 simulated conversations and evaluated profile fidelity through human annotation and a large language model (LLM) judge, then assessed downstream effects on the AI Decision Aid's concept retrieval and antidepressant recommendations. Results: The patient simulator expressed medical concepts with high fidelity (96.6% accurate across 8,210 concepts), with human inter-annotator agreement of 0.73$\kappa$ and LLM-judge agreement against human annotators of 0.78$\kappa$, both indicating substantial agreement. Behavioral profiles were reliably distinguished (0.93$\kappa$, near perfect agreement), and linguistic profiles showed substantial agreement at the lower bound of the substantial range (0.61$\kappa$), adequate to support profile-level analysis. The framework revealed monotonic degradation in AI Decision Aid performance across the health literacy gradient. Rank-1 concept retrieval increased from 47.6% for limited health literacy to 81.9% for proficient health literacy, with corresponding declines in antidepressant recommendation accuracy.