Rising autism identification in England, 2016-2024: evidence from England's School Census.
TL;DR
Evidence of 'locked in' future increases in prevalence from the movement of cohorts up the school system is found, and the need for forward planning to meet the growth and evolving profile of people with autism-related needs, in education and beyond is highlighted.
Abstract
Background
Since the 1990s, rates of autism spectrum disorder (henceforth 'autism') diagnosis have increased dramatically. To understand if this growth is ongoing, and to understand the changing profile and needs of those with an autism diagnosis, we investigated time trends (2016-2024) in: (a) the number and proportion of UK school pupils identified as autistic; and (b) the characteristics of these autistic pupils, in terms of their age, sex, ethnicity, socio-economic position and co-occurring needs.
Methods
The study used annual data from the School Census (2016-2024) in England, covering 8-8.5 million pupils in each census year. Autism was identified as a pupil having a recorded autism-specific special educational need or disability (SEND).
Results
The prevalence of identified autism grew rapidly, from 1.5% in 2016 to 3.3% in 2024. During this time, the male-to-female ratio of autistic pupils fell from 4.9-to-1 to 2.8-to-1, and the proportion of autistic pupils with an identified intellectual disability fell from 15.1% to 8.7%. Across the study timeframe, autistic pupils were more likely to be White British and from an economically deprived background. We found evidence of 'locked in' future increases in prevalence from the movement of cohorts up the school system.
Conclusions
As indexed by SEND data, rates of autism diagnosis in England continue to grow, in part driven by greater recognition of girls and those without intellectual disability. These findings highlight the need for forward planning to meet the growth and evolving profile of people with autism-related needs, in education and beyond.