When Genomic Masking Priors Fail to Transfer: Strong Variant Prediction, Weak Functional Generation

Abstract

Bidirectional discrete diffusion model appears naturally suited to genomic modeling because it can reconstruct missing sequence from both flanks. We developed GenDA (Genomic Density-optimized Absorbing Diffusion) under the additional hypothesis that entropy-guided span placement would concentrate reconstruction pressure on compositionally complex regions, improving both downstream variant-effect prediction and functional sequence generation. Our results only partially support this premise. After supervised fine-tuning, the 202M-parameter GenDA model reaches a pooled ClinVar SNV AUROC of 0.774, exceeding a similarly scaled autoregressive model by 0.103. However, a matched random-span variant reaches 0.777, providing no evidence that entropy guidance causes the ClinVar improvement. More unexpectedly, GenDA fails a zero-shot functional inpainting stress test: across promoters, enhancers, exon boundaries, and intron boundaries, it does not consistently outperform a control that shuffles the native gap while exactly preserving 3-mer composition. Failure is already present for 50--500-bp gaps, although enhancer degradation worsens at longer gaps. Diagnostics identify several boundary conditions: entropy measures local sequence complexity rather than functional importance; 1-mer tokenization limits physical context; training spans are capped at 300 bp; and high absolute AlphaGenome fidelity can coexist with negative control-normalized restoration. These results show that strong fine-tuned variant prediction, a plausible corruption prior, and functional generation are distinct claims that require separate validation.