Aug 2026· Engineering Research Express· Vol 8· 0 citations· 28 references
Physics
Abstract
Developing reliable computational tools for durability and service-life assessment of concrete structures in aggressive environments is essential for advancing predictive modeling in structural engineering. This study introduces machine learning (ML)–based models for forecasting the sulfate and acid resistance of recycled aggregate geopolymer concrete (RGPC), produced with untreated and surface-treated recycled concrete aggregates (RCAs) through two mixing approaches. Three algorithms, i.e. Gaussian process regression (GPR), LSBoost ensemble, and Neural Network, were trained using nine input parameters related to material composition and exposure conditions, with durability indicators, namely mass loss rate (Kw) and compressive strength retention index (Kf), as outputs. A dataset of 336 experimentally tested RGPC specimens was used, applying Bayesian Optimisation for hyperparameter tuning and 5-fold cross-validation for generalisation. Among the models, the optimized GPR achieved the highest accuracy, confirmed by the lowest objective value. Feature importance analysis highlighted environmental cations, sulfate concentration, RCA replacement level, initial compressive strength, and exposure duration as the most influential factors governing degradation. The proposed Bayesian-optimized ML framework demonstrates a robust and generalizable method for predicting durability and service life of sustainable concretes, providing a valuable tool for simulation-driven design and durability-based performance assessment in mechanics and structural engineering.
Accurate estimation of bond strength between steel reinforcement and geopolymer concrete is essential for the reliable design of sustainable reinforced concrete structures. However, the highly nonlinear interactions reduce the applicability and accuracy of conventional empirical models. This study proposes a Bayesian-optimized interpretable machine learning framework to predict the ultimate bond strength of reinforced geopolymer concrete using a comprehensive experimental database compiled from published studies. A dataset of 238 samples with 20 influential input variables was assembled to represent material properties, geopolymer chemistry, and specimen geometry. Six advanced machine learning algorithms, including Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest (RF), Extra Trees Regressor (ETR), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), XGBoost, and CatBoost, were developed and systematically compared. Hyperparameter tuning was performed using Bayesian optimization to improve model performance. The results indicate that all models achieved strong predictive capability, while the optimized CatBoost model (BO-CatBoost) provided the best performance with testing metrics of R² = 0.950, MAE = 1.173, MAPE = 11.608%, and RMSE = 1.669. A comparative evaluation with existing empirical equations further demonstrated the superior accuracy and lower prediction variability of the proposed model. To enhance model transparency, SHAP-based explainability analysis was conducted to quantify the contribution of each input parameter. The global importance analysis revealed that compressive strength, the embedment length-to-bar diameter ratio, and the cover-to-bar diameter ratio are the most influential factors governing bond strength. Additional mixture-related parameters, including the alkaline solution-to-binder ratio, curing temperature, CaO content in the binder, and the SiO₂/Al₂O₃ ratio, also contribute to the bond mechanism by influencing geopolymerization and matrix densification. The proposed framework provides both high predictive accuracy and interpretable insights, demonstrating the potential of Bayesian-optimized interpretable machine learning to support the design and optimization of sustainable reinforced geopolymer concrete structures.
A hybrid residual correction framework that integrates a physics-based carbonation model with a stacked ensemble of machine learning algorithms: gradient boosted regression trees (GBRT), support vector regression (SVR), and Gaussian process regression (GPR), combined through an XGBoost metamodel, demonstrating that the residual-based metamodel reproduced observed carbonation depths with higher accuracy.
Ankit Rai, Umesh Kumar Sharma, R. Ball· Journal of materials in civi...· 0 citations
Alkali-activated recycled aggregate concrete (AARAC) offers a sustainable alternative to traditional concrete but suffers from complex, non-linear mechanical behavior that challenges conventional prediction methods. This study develops and compares five machine learning models, linear regression (LR), M5P, Random Forest (RF), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) and XGBoost, for predicting the compressive strength (Cs), flexural strength (Fs), splitting tensile strength (Ss), pull-out bond strength (PT), and water absorption (Wa%) of AARAC. A dataset of 360 experimental samples, incorporating natural aggregate, recycled concrete aggregate (RCA), cement block aggregate (CBA), water-to-cement ratio (W/C), alkaline treatment status, and slump, was used. Models were evaluated via train/test split (80/20) and 10-fold cross-validation using R2, MAE, RMSE, and MAPE. Random Forest achieved the highest test R2 (0.8736) and lowest test MAPE (1.418%) and XGBoost (R2 = 0.8605, MAPE = 1.557%). KNN and M5P performed moderately, while LR was the weakest (R2 = 0.6958, MAPE = 2.147%). All tree-based models exhibited overfitting, with training R2 up to 0.98. Scatter plot analysis revealed systematic underprediction by RF for Cs (constant offset of ~2 MPa) and increasing bias for PT, Ss, and Wa% at higher values. XGBoost gave perfect predictions for PT and Wa% but underpredicted Cs and Fs. K-fold cross-validation confirmed XGBoost as the most robust (mean R2 = 0.9844). Correlation analysis showed W/C strongly increases Wa% (r = 0.80) and decreases PT (r = −0.73); RCA negatively affects mechanical properties, while CBA and alkaline treatment improve them. The study concludes that ensemble tree models, particularly Random Forest, are superior for AARAC prediction, but systematic bias requires post hoc calibration.
Ahmed D. Almutairi, Abd Al-Kader A. Al Sayed· Buildings· 0 citations
Abstract This study develops a robust framework for estimating the compressive strength of self-compacting concrete (SCC) incorporating recycled aggregates using supervised machine learning (ML) techniques. A comprehensive experimental database comprising 582 concrete mix designs was used, encompassing diverse input variables including binder content, water, coarse and fine aggregates, recycled aggregate proportion, superplasticizer dosage, and curing time. Seven ML algorithms—XGBoost, CatBoost, AdaBoost, Extra Trees, Bagging Regressor, K-Nearest Neighbors, and Radius Neighbors—were systematically trained using a stratified 70/15/15 data split and optimized via grid search with five-fold cross-validation. Model performance was evaluated using coefficient of determination (R 2), root mean squared error, and MAE across training, validation, and testing datasets. Among all models, XGBoost demonstrated the highest accuracy, achieving an average R 2 of 0.9799, RMSE of 2.87 MPa, and mean absolute error of 1.97 MPa. The Permutation Feature Importance analysis revealed that binder content, water, and coarse aggregate were the most influential predictors of strength. This study confirms that ensemble ML models, particularly XGBoost, can reliably predict the compressive strength of SCC with recycled aggregates, while offering transparent insights into material behavior. The results provide a valuable tool for sustainable mix design optimization and practical implementation in eco-efficient concrete construction.
A. Khan, M. D. Rasheed, Muhammad Huzaifa Naveed et al.· Data-Centric Engineering· 0 citations
Carbonation treatment can effectively address defects in recycled aggregates (RA) while achieving CO2 sequestration, thereby improving properties of recycled aggregate concrete (RAC). However, the compressive strength of carbonated recycled aggregate concrete (CRAC) is governed by complex interactions among multiple parameters, and existing machine learning (ML) studies often rely on heterogeneous literature data with limited parameter coverage, resulting in constrained predictive accuracy. To address this issue, this study established a robust ML framework for precise strength prediction. By integrating published literature with original experimental results, a dataset of 226 groups was constructed, incorporating 12 key parameters across RA properties, carbonation processes, mix proportions, and concrete age to systematically compare three ML models (GPR, SVM, EDT). To enhance model transparency, global sensitivity analysis used the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method, while X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and microhardness tests were employed to reveal reinforcement mechanisms at the phase, microstructural, and micromechanical levels, supporting the connection between intelligent prediction and mechanistic explanation. Results show that the GPR model exhibited the highest predictive performance and generalization capability (R2 = 0.98 for training, R2 = 0.94 for testing; RMSE = 1.08 MPa), outperforming comparative models in handling high-dimensional nonlinear relationships. SHAP analysis identified concrete age, water–cement (W/C) ratio, and the initial crush index of the RA as the primary factors, while carbonation process parameters, particularly relative humidity, carbonation pressure, and carbonation time, exerted significant regulatory effects on strength. XRD results qualitatively confirmed the formation of CaCO3 after carbonation, while SEM and microhardness analyses indicated that carbonation products contributed to pore filling and interfacial transition zone (ITZ) strengthening, providing a physical basis for both macroscopic performance improvement and model reliability. This study provides a scientific, data-driven solution for the mix design optimization and performance prediction of CRAC, delivering substantial environmental and economic benefits.
Jie Zhong, Sen Yang, Benjie Lei et al.· Buildings· 0 citations
Geopolymer concrete (GPC) is a sustainable alternative to Portland cement concrete; however, complex geopolymerization mechanisms and nonlinear strength development under ambient curing make mixture optimization challenging. This study develops a chemistry-informed data-driven framework to predict the 28-day compressive strength of ambient-cured slag/fly ash–based GPC. A dataset of 151 mixtures was compiled incorporating eight input parameters, including key precursor oxide ratios (SiO₂/CaO, SiO₂/Al₂O₃, and CaO/Al₂O₃), which are rarely considered in existing predictive models. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Gene Expression Programming (GEP) models were developed and compared. The optimal ANN model (8–2–2–1 architecture) achieved superior predictive accuracy (R² = 0.93, MAE = 2.82), while the GEP model (R² = 0.77, MAE = 5.55) produced an explicit mathematical equation suitable for practical applications. Model reliability was verified experimentally using four new mix designs. Sensitivity analysis identified the SiO₂/CaO ratio as the most influential parameter governing strength development in ambient-cured GPC.
A. Sabry, Sabry A. Ahmed, Mohamed K. Ismail et al.· Discover Materials· 0 citations