Jul 2026· British Journal of Cancer· 0 citations· 28 references
Medicine
TL;DR
Polygenic risk scores stratifies lifetime adenoma and CRC risk and may inform risk-based screening initiation and intensity but adds limited predictive value when combined with FIT.
Abstract
Background
Polygenic risk scores (PRS) show potential for risk-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, but their utility must be assessed across diverse ancestries and tumour characteristics and compared with the current standard, the faecal immunochemical test (FIT).
Design
The cohort included 112,204 individuals from the Copenhagen Hospital Biobank (8995 with adenoma and 9246 with CRC), all with linked genetic and health registry data. A subset (N = 20,658) also had FIT results. CRC PRSs were evaluated for their association with lifetime adenoma and CRC risk and their predictive value individually and combined with FIT.
Results
PRS stratified population-calibrated lifetime adenoma and CRC risk independently of ancestry and sex. Individuals with a high PRS reached the incidence of low-PRS individuals up to 10 years earlier, between ages 45-60. PRS stratified risk across tumour location and histologies but showed no association among individuals with deficient mismatch repair tumours (N = 623). Combining PRS with FIT did not meaningfully improve prediction of adenoma or CRC at first screening, negative colonoscopy outcomes among FIT-positive participants, or outcomes within 2 years after a negative FIT.
Conclusion
PRS stratifies lifetime adenoma and CRC risk and may inform risk-based screening initiation and intensity but adds limited predictive value when combined with FIT.
Background and objective: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Early identification of high-risk individuals allows targeted prevention and early detection. Design: We constructed a polygenic risk score (PRS) for CRC risk using data from 1,448,354 individuals (103,401 cases). We evaluated its performance for identifying high-risk individuals in 6 major ancestries. Results: The PRS was strongly associated with CRC risk in Europeans (OR per SD =2.13, 95%CI=1.98-2.28), Africans (OR=1.35, 95%CI=1.11-1.64), Hispanics (OR=1.97, 95%CI =1.48-2.61), East Asians (OR=1.98, 95%CI=1.35-2.91), South Asians (OR=1.85, 95%CI=1.44 -2.37), and Middle Easterners (OR=3.10, 95%CI=1.38-6.95). Europeans in the top 10% genetic risk had 14-fold and 5-fold higher CRC risks compared to the bottom 10% (OR=13.50, 95%CI=8.67-21.00), and average (20-70%) risk groups (OR=4.64, 95%CI=3.89-5.52), respectively. The CRC risk in the top 10% individuals was equivalent to having three affected first degree relatives with CRC diagnosed at any age. Genetically high-risk individuals developed CRC up to 15 years earlier than the average. The PRS was strongly associated with early onset CRC risk e.g. in AFR (OR=3.22, 95%CI=1.79-5.81), and improved its prediction e.g. by 9% beyond clinical predictors in EUR. Conclusion: A comprehensive genetic prediction of CRC risk provides insights that could streamline screening and prevention guidelines.
A. Parasuraman, A. Lim, R. Eltayib et al.· medRxiv· 0 citations
BACKGROUND
Ovarian cancer is characterised by high mortality and lacks effective screening, making prevention critical. Polygenic risk scores (PRS), which aggregate the effects of multiple common alleles, may capture a proportion of currently unexplained genetic risk. While PRS have been evaluated for risk prediction, their association with treatment response and survival remains unclear. This study assessed the utility of a PRS for predicting high-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC) risk in an Australian population and its association with chemotherapy response and outcomes.
METHODS
PRS were calculated for 1,097 HGSOC, and 812 controls using data from Australian research programs. Associations between PRS, OC risk, chemotherapy response, and survival were analysed.
RESULTS
Each standard-deviation increase in PRS was associated with a 40% increase in HGSOC risk (OR 1.40, p < 0.001). Women in the top 1% of the PRS distribution had a lifetime OC risk approaching 3%. Higher PRS values showed a trend toward poorer outcomes, however these associations were not consistent across analyses.
CONCLUSIONS
PRS were not clearly associated with chemotherapy response or survival but represent a significant risk factor for the development of HGSOC. Incorporating PRS into clinical models may improve risk stratification and support targeted prevention.
IMPACT
As the first study to evaluate how PRS relate to both HGSOC risk and chemotherapy response and outcomes, we show that PRS are unlikely to serve as therapeutic biomarkers but support their use for enhanced risk-stratified prevention.
R. Delahunty, S. M. Silva, A. Pandey et al.· Cancer Epidemiology, Biomark...· 0 citations
Germline PVs in NCCN-recommended DDR genes and the KLK3 I179T variant identify a subset of men at elevated risk of PCSM, including those with apparently localized disease.
Lucy Lu, Julian Xu, Zhu-Qing Shi et al.· Prostate Cancer and Prostati...· 1 citation
IMPORTANCE
Patients diagnosed with breast cancer (BCa) are at increased risk of multiple common diseases; however, the spectrum of these diseases and the contribution of inherited genetic susceptibility remain incompletely characterized.
METHODS
We evaluated 15 common diseases and tested their associations with BCa exposure and disease-specific polygenic risk scores (PRS) in the UK Biobank (UKB; N = 254,736). Analyses were performed using cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models within a full-cohort framework, with time-updated BCa status, delayed entry at study recruitment, and age as the underlying time scale.
RESULTS
After recruitment, incident BCa was diagnosed in 11,386 women (4.47%), including 2,742 (24.08%) with metastatic BCa. Patients with BCa had an increased risk of nine diseases spanning cardiovascular, metabolic, and neuropsychiatric domains (P<0.003, Bonferroni-corrected). Elevated risks were generally observed among patients with both early staged and advanced BCa. Inherited susceptibility further stratified disease risk, with the highest risks observed among patients with BCa with elevated disease-specific PRS. For example, compared with women without BCa, the hazard ratio (HR; 95% CI) for osteoporosis was 2.33 (2.15-2.52) among women with any BCa, 2.38 (2.18-2.59) among those with non-metastatic BCa, and 2.12 (1.78-2.54) among those with metastatic BCa; the HR was 4.48 (3.99-5.02) among patients with BCa in the highest quartile of osteoporosis-specific PRS (all P<0.001). In contrast, BCa was not significantly associated with risk of coronary artery disease.
CONCLUSION
BCa and inherited genetic susceptibility jointly contribute to increased risk of multiple common diseases, supporting the integration of genetic risk stratification into survivorship care.
Annabelle Ashworth, Zhu-Qing Shi, Huy Tran et al.· JNCI Cancer Spectrum· 0 citations
An integrated continuum genetic risk model, GenProb-PCa, improves PCa risk stratification beyond binary approaches by capturing heterogeneity in inherited risk and may enable more precise risk-based screening strategies.
Zhu-Qing Shi, A. Mulford, Jun Wei et al.· Journal of Medical Genetics· 0 citations
PURPOSE
Female survivors of childhood cancer are at high risk for developing breast cancer. The contributions of most general population primary breast cancer genetic predictors to this risk have not been explored.
METHODS
Analyses included females who survived ≥5 years after their childhood cancer diagnosis with available array (N = 2096, subsequent breast cancer [SBC]=218) or whole-genome sequencing (WGS; N = 3292, SBC=101) data from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study and St. Jude Lifetime Cohort. We computed 99 externally-validated primary breast cancer polygenic risk scores (PRS). Using deep-coverage WGS, ClinVar-annotated pathogenic/likely pathogenic (P/LP) variants in breast cancer susceptibility genes were identified. Cox proportional hazards models assessed associations with SBC risk, adjusting for treatments and genetic ancestry.
RESULTS
Among 5388 female survivors (genetic ancestry, European: N = 4,752; African: N = 444; East Asian: N = 192), 319 developed SBC. Most (90.9%) PRSs were nominally associated with SBC risk (P < 0.05), but effect sizes varied substantially. PRSs with superior discriminatory ability had greater genome-wide coverage (e.g., 6.4 million-variant PRS, HR per SD = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.43 to 2.05; P = 4.2x10-9) and 7.7-fold higher odds (P = 7.0x10-4) of including variants in multiple DNA damage repair pathways compared with PRSs with weaker risk associations. Among survivors with WGS, 1.6% carried P/LP variants in clinical testing panel genes, which was associated with a 7.4-fold greater risk (95% CI = 3.16 to 17.19). Including genetic factors improved SBC risk prediction by age 40 (P < 0.001) compared to treatment exposures alone.
CONCLUSIONS
Externally-validated primary breast cancer genetic susceptibility predictors are relevant for SBC risk prediction and should be prioritized for risk stratification in survivors.
A. Srinivasan, Jian Wang, Gavriel Y. Matt et al.· Journal of the National Canc...· 0 citations
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