The Influence of Inflation, the Benchmark Interest Rate, and the Exchange Rate on Murabahah Margin Income of Sharia Banks in Indonesia (2019–2024) with Service Digitalization as a Moderating Variable

Abstract

Murabahah margin income is a key indicator for assessing the performance of Islamic banking, as it is influenced by macroeconomic dynamics and technological transformation. Banks with adaptive digital service innovations tend to exhibit more stable financing performance. This study aims to examine the effect of inflation, the BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate, and exchange rates on murabahah margin income in Indonesian Islamic banking, utilizing service digitalization as a moderating variable. A quantitative method with panel data regression was employed. The population comprised all Sharia Commercial Banks in Indonesia, from which a sample of five banks was selected using purposive sampling for the 2019–2024 period (30 observations). Data analysis was conducted using Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) with a Fixed Effect Model (FEM) specification, corrected with White cross-section robust standard errors to address heteroskedasticity. The findings indicate that macroeconomic variables and digitalization simultaneously influence murabahah margin income. Partially, exchange rates and digitalization exhibit a significant direct effect. Furthermore, service digitalization significantly moderates the impact of inflation and exchange rates on murabahah margin income, but fails to moderate the effect of the BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate