Ranking Inversion in Risk-Parameterised UAV Path Planning for Wildfire Emergency Response

Abstract

Wildfires generate rapidly evolving hazard landscapes that disrupt ground-based logistics and render conventional disaster-response operations ineffective, motivating the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in civil-protection missions such as medical resupply, casualty search-and-rescue, and perimeter surveillance. Existing evaluations, however, share a common limitation: they assess performance using navigation-centric metrics—primarily success rate—without accounting for the temporal value of the mission objective. This paper characterises, within each planner family, how a single risk coefficient ρ governs the trade-off between navigation success and time-decaying mission value: holding each family’s algorithm and replan trigger fixed and sweeping only ρ isolates its effect, so that the risk setting maximising a family’s navigation success need not maximise its mission value. To study this, FLARE is introduced, a deterministic benchmark for fire-landscape adaptive risk evaluation, inspired by recent Greek wildfire events; all hazard dynamics (fire spread, structural collapse, moving obstacles, dynamic no-fly zones) are modelled as benchmark abstractions rather than incident-specific reconstructions. FLARE evaluates eight planners spanning six risk-handling paradigm families, isolating the risk coefficient by sweeping ρ within each family (algorithm fixed) with A* as the risk-blind static reference, and quantifies mission impact—medication efficacy, casualty survival, and data freshness—through a strictly time-decreasing mission-score function. The mission-value leverage of ρ is strongly family-dependent: decisive for the incremental soft-cost-inflation family—whose success-optimal ρ collapses its mission value (0.91 → 0.41)—strong for the worst-case (CVaR) family, moderate for the sampling family, and negligible for the reactive, hard-threshold and frequent-replan families. In some families the success-optimal and mission-optimal ρ diverge—a within-family ranking inversion—while in others they coincide; because the algorithm is fixed across each sweep, the divergence is attributable to ρ alone. Success of navigation is therefore a necessary but insufficient proxy for mission effectiveness, and the risk coefficient is a meaningful per-family parameter for mission-aware configuration.