Decarbonising a transcontinental green shipping corridor under trade growth: a system dynamics analysis

Abstract

Decarbonising maritime transport is becoming increasingly challenging amid sustained global trade growth. This study develops a System Dynamics (SD) framework to evaluate a transcontinental green shipping corridor connecting Shanghai, Jebel Ali, and Koper. The model integrates five interconnected stages, including port operations, voyage emissions, alternative fuel production, bunkering infrastructure, and renewable energy deployment. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are modelled using a stock–flow approach incorporating alternative fuels (ammonia, methanol, and hydrogen), energy-efficiency technologies, infrastructure constraints, and feedback-driven adoption mechanisms. The results reveal a pronounced growth–decarbonization paradox. Although the simulated transition pathway combines 23 mitigation measures with approximately 86% adoption of alternative fuels, it does not achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Under an assumed annual traffic growth rate of 2.2%, baseline emissions increase by approximately 80%, progressively offsetting the benefits of technological and operational improvements. Voyage phases account for approximately 96% of total emission reductions, while the bunkering stage emerges as a critical enabling subsystem linking renewable energy generation, fuel production, and vessel fuel demand. The analysis further identifies infrastructure readiness, technology saturation, and declining marginal mitigation benefits as key constraints on long-term decarbonization performance. The findings demonstrate that green shipping corridors should be evaluated as integrated transport–energy systems rather than isolated transport routes. The proposed SD framework provides a transferable tool for analysing corridor-scale decarbonization pathways and supporting evidence-based maritime policy and infrastructure planning.