Phased fuel transitions for decarbonizing the Asia–Europe Green Shipping Corridor

Abstract

International shipping stands at a pivotal juncture in its decarbonization efforts, yet a comprehensive assessment of viable fuel transition pathways remains scarce. Here we develop a dynamic life cycle assessment framework integrated with system dynamics to evaluate 13 alternative marine fuels (for example, ammonia, methanol, hydrogen and soybean-based biodiesel) for the Asia–Europe Green Shipping Corridor through 2050. The framework incorporates climate impacts, environmental sustainability, energy efficiency and economic feasibility. Under three scenarios (Business as Usual, Most Economical and Maximum Carbon Reduction), this study accounts for key dynamic parameters, including technology learning curves. Results indicate a phased transition: soybean-based biodiesel offers a near-term solution, while electrofuels dominate after 2040. The International Maritime Organization’s Net-Zero Framework progressively narrows regional cost–emission gaps, whereas the European Union’s FuelEU Maritime regulation introduces a cost premium of up to 7.6%. These results indicate that policy design and regulatory stringency substantially shape fuel transition trajectories for maritime decarbonization. Shipping remains almost entirely reliant on fossil fuels, and identifying viable fuel transition pathways under evolving regulations is a key challenge. A study now evaluates 13 alternative marine fuels for the Asia–Europe corridor, revealing phased transitions shaped by policy design and timing.