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Open access Aug 2026

A scenario assessment of the global mitigation effort in the light of the 2035 climate finance goal

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreed in 2024 to boost finance for climate change in developing countries to USD 300 billion by 2035. In this study, we assess how much mitigation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) is possible by generating this amount of revenues from carbon pricing in industrialized regions. We assess a scenario that considers carbon prices differentiated for industrialized, transition and developing regions. We find that such scenario provides 16% more GHG emissions reductions by 2035 compared to a scenario where the existing national mitigation targets (represented by the nationally determined contributions as of 2022) are achieved. Despite this, a considerable gap remains in terms of the revenues needed to achieve emissions reductions aligned with a pathway securing the climate target of 1.5 °C global warming above pre-industrial levels. Therefore, these outcomes suggest that considerably larger climate mitigation actions are needed beyond the climate finance goal agreed by nations under the UNFCCC. In addition, we highlight by means of additional scenarios the implications (in terms of emissions reductions, carbon price revenues and consumption losses) of the absence in the carbon pricing scheme of the major GHG emitters from industrialized regions (USA) and from developing regions (China).

D. Herran, S. Fujimori, Osamu Nishiura · 0 citations
Review Open access 2026

Evaluation of progress in global warming mitigation policies for the building sector in Japan

Peer-reviewed paper 4-172-26 The Japanese Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures (PGWC) was established to support Japan in achieving its NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution) target under the Paris Agreement, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 46% by 2030 compared to 2013 levels. A special feature of the PGWC is that it was formulated through a bottom-up approach based on individual countermeasures. Japan’s greenhouse gas emissions are currently on track to meet its targets until fiscal year 2023. However, according to the analysis of emission reductions, the decline in manufacturing activity has significantly contributed to the reduction in energy demand, and the PGWC’s measures, such as renewable energy dissemination and energy efficiency, are not progressing as planned. The authors developed a digital twin model for Japan’s residential sector energy consumption consisting of data from the Japanese household CO 2 statistics, as well as energy simulations considering occupant behavior and dynamic thermal load calculations. Using this model, the weather effect was removed from the statistical energy consumption data and evaluated the effectiveness of each countermeasure quantitatively. Since weather conditions significantly affect the residential sector, the energy consumption reductions by the mitigation policy were smaller than planned after removing their impact. The analysis also revealed that renewals of refrigerators

Yoshiyuki Shimoda, Y. Yamaguchi, Hideaki Uchida · 0 citations
Open access Aug 2026

Analysis and Outlook on Actions to Address Climate Change in 2025

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has confirmed that 2024 was the warmest year on record. Global warming is moving increasingly closer to the [Formula: see text]C temperature limit set by the Paris Agreement. Against a background of global economic uncertainty and geopolitical instability, international efforts to address climate change continued to move forward in 2025. The 30th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP30), held in Belém, Brazil, in November 2025, achieved positive outcomes on a range of key issues. As a responsible major country, China has actively responded to a complex international environment and multiple challenges, remained firmly committed to a green and low-carbon development path, and made important contributions to promoting the global transition toward green and low-carbon development.

Ying Chen, Qing-Chen Chao, Guo-Quan Hu · 0 citations
Open access Jul 2026

Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Türkiye: A Comparison with EU-27 Countries and Machine Learning–Based Forecasting

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Türkiye have shown a continuous increase over the past 35 years, with a total rise of 155.3%. In comparison, agricultural greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 41.8% and currently account for approximately 12% of total GHG emissions, highlighting the sector's significant contribution. Accurately determining and planning future emission levels is crucial for implementing effective mitigation strategies and aligning with European Union regulations. This study presents a comparative analysis of Türkiye's agricultural greenhouse gas emissions with those of the 27 European Union countries for the period 2015–2023 and provides forecasts for the years 2025–2030. The findings indicate that, although Türkiye ranks as the second-highest country in terms of total agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, it ranks ninth lowest in terms of emission intensity. Among the three prediction models evaluated, the Random Forest Regression model demonstrated the best performance, achieving a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.503, compared to 0.482 for Ridge Regression and −2.048 for Linear Regression.

Çağdaş Civelek · 0 citations
Preprint Jul 2026

Satellite-based emissions estimate indicates progress toward China's methane mitigation goals

China emits the most methane of any country worldwide, but there are large uncertainties in recent emissions trends, sources, and the potential impacts of policy actions. This study focuses on a period when the government initiated ambitious methane control efforts, linking sectoral policies with atmospheric evidence on sectoral, sub-national, and seasonal emissions during 2019--2024. We quantify daily methane emissions from China using a regional atmospheric inverse model with TROPOMI satellite observations. Our results reveal an average methane emissions increase rate of 0.3 Tg yr$^{-2}$ in Eastern&Central China, likely a milder trend than in the 2010s. Coal industry methane emissions intensity declined for the first time (-3.2% yr$^{-1}$) despite rising production, possibly associated with diverse policy instruments, mandates, and incentives. We further highlight two emerging challenges for future mitigation: leaks from expanding urban gas use amid the energy transition and rising agricultural emission yet with substantial uncertainty in estimates. Lastly, declining emissions intensity of coal mines points to the future role of targeted mandates and incentives in encouraging methane reduction for other sectors.

Ziting Huang, Ao Chen, Le-Yang Feng et al. · 0 citations
Review Open access Aug 2026

Comparison of major EU and climate scenarios for 2040: what contribution from energy savings and sufficiency?

Extended abstract 3-288-26 While the role of energy demand reduction to meet climate objectives is increasingly considered, most scenarios do not fully reflect this potential, and only a few explore low-demand pathways. Literature reviews show that this is not only due to preferences of modellers or scenario users, but also to structural limitations of models.This analysis investigates how main energy and climate scenarios for Europe balance demand and supply-side options and how this is informing policy making, with a particular focus on the setting of EU 2040 targets. It first focuses on a comparison and benchmark of scenarios. Eight prominent scenarios by institutions, think tanks and an NGO are selected on criteria of comprehensiveness, detail of modelling and compliance with the Paris Agreement. They are then characterised using 14 indicators that reflect their outcomes (GHG budget, fossil fuel consumption) and their use of major levers (renewables, hydrogen, electrification, reduction of consumption, carbon sinks). These numbers are then compared to targets and thresholds drawn from reports on climate objectives and the potential of various options by the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC). This benchmark of the relative ambition and feasibility of scenarios shows a positive correlation between demand reduction – compared to stronger reliance on supply-oriented options – and climate ambition, feasibility and robustness, providing major lessons for the EU’s 2040 target setting. The analysis then reviews detailed assumptions on energy demand for buildings and mobility, comparing the low-demand CLEVER scenario with the Commission's S3 – one of the few providing such detail. Beyond the transparency gap in data, this comparison reveals the prevalence in a scenario like S3 of trend-based projections of activity, contrasting with CLEVER’s explicit modelling of energy services. Analysing this gap can help to inform policies about the potential of energy savings. Read the full abstract. Download presentation.

Stephane Bourgeois, Y. Marignac, Nicolas Taillard et al. · 0 citations

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