Aug 2026· Eceee ... summer study proceedings· 0 citations
Abstract
Extended abstract 3-288-26
While the role of energy demand reduction to meet climate objectives is increasingly considered, most scenarios do not fully reflect this potential, and only a few explore low-demand pathways. Literature reviews show that this is not only due to preferences of modellers or scenario users, but also to structural limitations of models.This analysis investigates how main energy and climate scenarios for Europe balance demand and supply-side options and how this is informing policy making, with a particular focus on the setting of EU 2040 targets.
It first focuses on a comparison and benchmark of scenarios. Eight prominent scenarios by institutions, think tanks and an NGO are selected on criteria of comprehensiveness, detail of modelling and compliance with the Paris Agreement. They are then characterised using 14 indicators that reflect their outcomes (GHG budget, fossil fuel consumption) and their use of major levers (renewables, hydrogen, electrification, reduction of consumption, carbon sinks).
These numbers are then compared to targets and thresholds drawn from reports on climate objectives and the potential of various options by the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC). This benchmark of the relative ambition and feasibility of scenarios shows a positive correlation between demand reduction – compared to stronger reliance on supply-oriented options – and climate ambition, feasibility and robustness, providing major lessons for the EU’s 2040 target setting.
The analysis then reviews detailed assumptions on energy demand for buildings and mobility, comparing the low-demand CLEVER scenario with the Commission's S3 – one of the few providing such detail. Beyond the transparency gap in data, this comparison reveals the prevalence in a scenario like S3 of trend-based projections of activity, contrasting with CLEVER’s explicit modelling of energy services. Analysing this gap can help to inform policies about the potential of energy savings.
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Extended abstract 4-259-26
Policymakers often lack common frameworks to systematically assess the social, economic, and environmental impacts of energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy supply (RES) on a level playing field. The SEED MICAT project addresses this by providing an integrated assessment framework for EU, national, and local governance scales. This framework uses impact coefficients to link technology-specific inputs to multiple indicators through three main steps: quantifying impacts in physical terms, monetizing them where possible, and including them into cost-benefit analysis.
The framework supports both ex-ante and ex-post evaluations throughout the entire policy cycle. Designed for high user-friendliness, the methodology requires only a minimal set of mandatory inputs, specifically energy savings for EE actions and installed capacity for RES options. While default values are provided for use in data-scarce environments, users can enter optional data to enhance the accuracy of the results.
A key social impact of EE and RES that can be quantified within the framework is energy poverty (EP) alleviation. At the core of the methodology is the estimation of the financial benefit accruing to households (HH) as a result of implemented EE actions and/or deployed RES and its subsequent comparison with the energy poverty gap (EPG) (i.e., the difference between a HH’s absolute or relative energy expenditure and a national EP threshold value). Households for which energy cost savings exceed their EPG are considered lifted out of EP. For this micro-level assessment, aggregated user inputs are disaggregated to determine average costs and benefits per household. This requires simplifying assumptions regarding technologies/actions, their distribution across building types and population groups, and the sharing of investment costs and benefits at building level.
For RES deployment, EP impacts are quantified for rooftop PV, assuming proportionally distributed deployment across building types and ubiquitous participation by building residents. Prosumed (owners) or substituted (tenants) electricity is monetized using day-ahead prices or a fixed proportion of retail market prices. Key limitations include the use of national averages as default parameters and the lack of more granular or up-to-date data.
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Florin Vondung, Felix Suerkemper· Eceee ... summer study proce...· 0 citations
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreed in 2024 to boost finance for climate change in developing countries to USD 300 billion by 2035. In this study, we assess how much mitigation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) is possible by generating this amount of revenues from carbon pricing in industrialized regions. We assess a scenario that considers carbon prices differentiated for industrialized, transition and developing regions. We find that such scenario provides 16% more GHG emissions reductions by 2035 compared to a scenario where the existing national mitigation targets (represented by the nationally determined contributions as of 2022) are achieved. Despite this, a considerable gap remains in terms of the revenues needed to achieve emissions reductions aligned with a pathway securing the climate target of 1.5 °C global warming above pre-industrial levels. Therefore, these outcomes suggest that considerably larger climate mitigation actions are needed beyond the climate finance goal agreed by nations under the UNFCCC. In addition, we highlight by means of additional scenarios the implications (in terms of emissions reductions, carbon price revenues and consumption losses) of the absence in the carbon pricing scheme of the major GHG emitters from industrialized regions (USA) and from developing regions (China).
D. Herran, S. Fujimori, Osamu Nishiura· Environmental Research Lette...· 0 citations
Extended abstract 3-040-26
The EU’s building stock represents the highest single energy consumer and emitter of Greenhouse Gas Emissions. It is therefore the sector with the highest impact on the achievement of Europe’s overall energy and climate targets. Considering that the majority of the buildings’ energy demand, and the associated emissions, are linked to space heating and cooling and domestic hot water, the decarbonisation of the heating and cooling systems are a clear priority. The new Energy Efficiency Directive (2023) has introduced clear targets for heating and cooling, including a set of obligations for Member States. This research provides a method to assess the impacts of the EED and similar legislations on the actual emissions reductions, as well as costs and energy savings under different policy scenarios. The approach combines aggregated and spatial assessments of energy demand and a modelling framework for the supply side assessment and is implemented for the Republic of Croatia as a case study. A reference 2023 and 6 alternative scenarios for 2030 have been developed, based on the obligations proposed in the EED and two more ambitious scenarios (33% and 50% increase in targets) as well as alternatives with a higher share of district heating for each of the three 2030 scenarios.
This abstract concludes that investments in energy efficiency in line with the EED can lead to significant reductions in the primary energy needs and linked to that, a significant reduction of the Greenhouse Gas Emissions. The research additionally shows that these investments can also greatly reduce the total systems costs, even when the high investment costs associated with a mass refurbishment efforts are considered. The research also shows that going beyond the ambitions foreseen in the EED can result in even better outcomes, resulting in even greater savings and costs reduction across the board.
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T. Novosel, Indriany Lionggo· Eceee ... summer study proce...· 0 citations
Climate change has become one of the most urgent challenges of the 21st century, shaping environmental, economic, and social dynamics on a global scale. In the Mediterranean basin, temperatures have risen by 1.5 °C, with projections suggesting a further increase of 5.6 °C by 2100. The building sector represents a critical intervention point, accounting for 30% of final energy consumption and 27% of global carbon dioxide emissions. While passive strategies mitigate these impacts, current energy policies fail to consider future variations in heating and cooling demand due to climate change. Using OpenStudio and EnergyPlus, three reference models (small office, residential building, and hospital) were simulated across five Spanish climatic areas (Almería, Córdoba, Cáceres, Lleida, León). Current conditions were compared against 2050 projections under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5) utilizing the morphing method. The results revealed a systemic shift toward cooling-dominated profiles. Small office heating demand drops by 18–34%, while cooling demand increases by 80–274%. Residential heating decreases by 19–36%, while cooling increases by 85–706%. Hospitals show milder relative variations, yet cooling demand rises 64–114%. These findings, based on thermal energy demand (kWh/m2), emphasize the need for climate-responsive design and efficient retrofitting. Conclusions regarding peak power grid stress, carbon emissions, or energy poverty are indirect implications; translating thermal demand to final energy, primary energy, or emissions requires accounting for HVAC system efficiency, energy source mix, and emission factors, which are outside the scope of this study.
Addressing climate change with the necessary urgency will only be successful if climate policies are perceived as socially fair and equitable by the majority of the population. However, as recognised in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), energy and climate modelling still struggles to bring together detailed economic and inequality impacts of climate policies. To help reduce this gap, we link GCAM-Europe, a geographical expansion of a well-established integrated assessment model, with MEDUSA, a tool for high-resolution distributional analysis. Our analysis explores how different implementations of the European Union (EU)‘s climate policy portfolio affect various consumer groups across and within Member States. It finds that a general EU-wide carbon price, while cost-efficient, has regressive impacts, disproportionately burdening low-income Member States and households. In contrast, policies based on national plans (NECPs) are less regressive. Gender and the urban-rural dimension also play an important role, with man-headed and rural households being the most affected.
E. Alonso-Epelde, X. García-Muros, Jon Sampedro et al.· npj Climate Action· 0 citations
As a critical enabler of global commerce, the maritime industry is under increasing pressure to significantly reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in line with international climate objectives. Currently, shipping accounts for nearly 3% of the world’s total emissions, positioning decarbonization as not just a regulatory obligation, but also an ethical and economic necessity. Recognizing this, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set ambitious climate goals-most notably, a commitment to cut GHG emissions from ships by at least 50% by 2050 compared to 2008 levels (International Maritime Organization [IMO], 2023). Meeting this target will require a sweeping transformation, including a shift toward low- and zero-carbon fuels such as hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, and next-generation biofuels. Moreover, the adoption of cleaner propulsion technologies, enhanced energy efficiency systems, and more sustainable operational practices will be crucial. This paper delves into the technological innovations, regulatory frameworks, and economic implications of maritime decarbonization, highlighting the importance of global coordination, consistent policy support, and active stakeholder engagement to achieve a just and sustainable energy transition in the shipping sector.
Shyamala Shukla, Suyesha S· International journal of re...· 0 citations
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