Jul 2026· Open Research Europe· 0 citations· 33 references
Abstract
The Mediterranean Basin is a climate change hotspot, experiencing accelerated warming and strong environmental vulnerability. Mediterranean Sea surface temperatures have increased by approximately 1.5 °C over the past four decades, underscoring the urgency of coordinated mitigation efforts. In this context, this study examines how alternative allocation criteria for distributing the remaining carbon budget compatible with the Paris Agreement (well below 2 °C) affect emission pathways among the 21 signatory countries of the Barcelona Convention. Using a mitigation pathway derived from the Global Change Analysis Model, the analysis evaluates emissions trajectories from 2030—anchored in current Nationally Determined Contributions—through 2100. Five allocation principles are assessed: Grandfathering, Per Capita, Per Capita Convergence, Equal Cumulative Per Capita, and Ability to Pay, each reflecting different trade-offs between equity and feasibility. Results indicate that, irrespective of the allocation rule, rapid and sustained decarbonisation is unavoidable. At current emission levels, the regional carbon budget would be exhausted by 2035, requiring average annual reductions of approximately 6% between 2030 and 2050 to meet global targets. While population-based criteria yield the largest regional budget and are more equitable, they imply more disruptive transitions. In contrast, emissions-based approaches are more feasible but risk reinforcing existing inequalities. These findings highlight significant implications for fossil fuel-dependent economies and stress the importance of regional cooperation. The Barcelona Convention emerges as a key platform to facilitate equitable burden-sharing and coordinated climate action in the Mediterranean region.
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreed in 2024 to boost finance for climate change in developing countries to USD 300 billion by 2035. In this study, we assess how much mitigation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) is possible by generating this amount of revenues from carbon pricing in industrialized regions. We assess a scenario that considers carbon prices differentiated for industrialized, transition and developing regions. We find that such scenario provides 16% more GHG emissions reductions by 2035 compared to a scenario where the existing national mitigation targets (represented by the nationally determined contributions as of 2022) are achieved. Despite this, a considerable gap remains in terms of the revenues needed to achieve emissions reductions aligned with a pathway securing the climate target of 1.5 °C global warming above pre-industrial levels. Therefore, these outcomes suggest that considerably larger climate mitigation actions are needed beyond the climate finance goal agreed by nations under the UNFCCC. In addition, we highlight by means of additional scenarios the implications (in terms of emissions reductions, carbon price revenues and consumption losses) of the absence in the carbon pricing scheme of the major GHG emitters from industrialized regions (USA) and from developing regions (China).
D. Herran, S. Fujimori, Osamu Nishiura· Environmental Research Lette...· 0 citations
Climate change has become one of the most urgent challenges of the 21st century, shaping environmental, economic, and social dynamics on a global scale. In the Mediterranean basin, temperatures have risen by 1.5 °C, with projections suggesting a further increase of 5.6 °C by 2100. The building sector represents a critical intervention point, accounting for 30% of final energy consumption and 27% of global carbon dioxide emissions. While passive strategies mitigate these impacts, current energy policies fail to consider future variations in heating and cooling demand due to climate change. Using OpenStudio and EnergyPlus, three reference models (small office, residential building, and hospital) were simulated across five Spanish climatic areas (Almería, Córdoba, Cáceres, Lleida, León). Current conditions were compared against 2050 projections under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5) utilizing the morphing method. The results revealed a systemic shift toward cooling-dominated profiles. Small office heating demand drops by 18–34%, while cooling demand increases by 80–274%. Residential heating decreases by 19–36%, while cooling increases by 85–706%. Hospitals show milder relative variations, yet cooling demand rises 64–114%. These findings, based on thermal energy demand (kWh/m2), emphasize the need for climate-responsive design and efficient retrofitting. Conclusions regarding peak power grid stress, carbon emissions, or energy poverty are indirect implications; translating thermal demand to final energy, primary energy, or emissions requires accounting for HVAC system efficiency, energy source mix, and emission factors, which are outside the scope of this study.
In the face of escalating climate change, the management of global carbon stocks stands out as among one of the critical mitigation strategies. In this review article, we explore the concept of carbon stocks by considering three important global case studies: the Amazon Fund (Brazil) for conservation, the Himachal Pradesh Reforestation Project (India) for sequestration, and the Loess Plateau Rehabilitation (China) for landscape restoration. We will analyse the implementation strategies, socio economic co-benefits, and the challenges that these projects have faced. Furthermore, we will also explore how technological carbon removals play a complementary role in carbon removal. Lastly, we will conclude with an understanding that effective carbon stock projects are those that integrate climate goals while strengthening community livelihoods, robust monitoring, review and evaluation, and stable political and financial support, offering a holistic pathway toward achieving global climate targets. Building on reviewer feedback, this revised review also critically examines the political, market, and ecological trade-offs each project encountered, incorporates updated quantitative outcomes, and proposes indicators for assessing the long-term sustainability of carbon stock interventions.
A. F., Bvumbwe, B· International journal of re...· 0 citations
Extended abstract 3-288-26
While the role of energy demand reduction to meet climate objectives is increasingly considered, most scenarios do not fully reflect this potential, and only a few explore low-demand pathways. Literature reviews show that this is not only due to preferences of modellers or scenario users, but also to structural limitations of models.This analysis investigates how main energy and climate scenarios for Europe balance demand and supply-side options and how this is informing policy making, with a particular focus on the setting of EU 2040 targets.
It first focuses on a comparison and benchmark of scenarios. Eight prominent scenarios by institutions, think tanks and an NGO are selected on criteria of comprehensiveness, detail of modelling and compliance with the Paris Agreement. They are then characterised using 14 indicators that reflect their outcomes (GHG budget, fossil fuel consumption) and their use of major levers (renewables, hydrogen, electrification, reduction of consumption, carbon sinks).
These numbers are then compared to targets and thresholds drawn from reports on climate objectives and the potential of various options by the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC). This benchmark of the relative ambition and feasibility of scenarios shows a positive correlation between demand reduction – compared to stronger reliance on supply-oriented options – and climate ambition, feasibility and robustness, providing major lessons for the EU’s 2040 target setting.
The analysis then reviews detailed assumptions on energy demand for buildings and mobility, comparing the low-demand CLEVER scenario with the Commission's S3 – one of the few providing such detail. Beyond the transparency gap in data, this comparison reveals the prevalence in a scenario like S3 of trend-based projections of activity, contrasting with CLEVER’s explicit modelling of energy services. Analysing this gap can help to inform policies about the potential of energy savings.
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Stephane Bourgeois, Y. Marignac, Nicolas Taillard et al.· Eceee ... summer study proce...· 0 citations
BACKGROUND
In 2023, forests offset approximately 9% of total GHG emissions in the EU-27, with Italy accounting for about 20% of these offsets. Historical felling rates, in Italy, are highly uncertain, with a ± 50% confidence interval. In this study, we used a forest carbon inventory model, scaled at regional level, to assess the overall impact of the harvest uncertainty on the Italian forest carbon (C) sink. The analysis included most recent information from the literature and an ancillary assessment of the harvested wood product mitigation potential. Based on this assessment, we estimate the evolution of the forest C sink to 2070, under different harvest scenarios defined by an increasing felling rate relative to the net annual increment estimated by the model on forest area available for wood supply.
RESULTS
Comparison of our results with the Italian GHGI data shows an overall good fit with the living biomass sink, but significantly higher removals by the dead organic matter pool. For the historical period, the modelled total C sink increases from -40 Tg CO2 yr-1 in 2005 to -55 Tg CO2 yr-1 in 2023. The future forest C sink varied between -76 Tg CO2 yr-1 and -16 Tg CO2 yr-1 by 2070, corresponding to the lowest (0.10) and highest (0.90) felling to net annual increment ratios, respectively. Our analysis confirms that the contribution of harvested wood products to the total C sink is negligible, as the Italian forest sector predominantly channels timber extraction into energy production.
CONCLUSIONS
Between 2005 and 2023, the impact of harvest uncertainty on the total forest C sink averaged 11 Tg CO2 yr-1, representing about ± 23% of the C sink associated with the average harvest reported in the literature for the same period. By simulating the theoretical forest C sink dynamics under different felling rates, and by excluding any possible impacts of climate change on current growth conditions, our study provides a long-term assessment of wood production potential versus carbon storage capacity. This bottom-up modelling framework aligns with the New EU Forest Strategy and can serve as a model for other European countries.
R. Pilli, E. Cienciala, Kevin Black· Carbon Balance and Managemen...· 0 citations
Over the past seven decades, rapid economic growth has been accompanied by a substantial increase in environmental degradation worldwide. Given the magnitude and transboundary nature of environmental externalities, country-specific policies may be insufficient, and regionally coordinated environmental strategies are likely to be more effective. For such frameworks to succeed, convergence in levels of environmental pressure among member countries is essential. In this study, convergence is examined using the ecological footprint (EFP), a comprehensive indicator of environmental pressure. The analysis covers the six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—over 1971–2024 and tests for the stochastic convergence of per-capita footprints relative to the year-t regional average. Conventional ADF tests indicate convergence for Kuwait and Qatar—with Saudi Arabia at the 10% level—and Phillips–Perron results point in the same direction. Quantile ADF and Fourier quantile KSS tests with bootstrap inference show that adjustment is regime-dependent and country-specific: mean reversion is confined to below-average states in Bahrain, to above-average states in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, and to both extremes in Qatar, while the United Arab Emirates and Oman revert to almost no quantile. The Phillips–Sul log-t procedure does not reject full-panel convergence: all six countries form a single convergence club, the result survives leave-one-country-out and cross-sectional-dependence checks, and subsample estimates date the convergence process mainly to the post-1990 period. Component-level analysis shows that aggregate convergence is carried by the carbon component (84–99% of the GCC footprint), whereas cropland, grazing, forest, and built-up components diverge. The findings support regionally coordinated energy–carbon policy combined with nationally tailored land-use policy.
Erhan Oruç, M. Ince, Yavuz Kılınç et al.· Sustainability· 0 citations
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