ASE: Attribution-Guided Semantic Evolution for Time Series Forecasting

Abstract

External text can supply predictive information absent from numerical histories, but its value depends on how it is represented, combined and deployed. We present Attribution-guided Semantic Evolution (ASE), a modular framework for constructing textual factors, evaluating their conditional contribution, and deploying validation-selected numerical--textual predictors. ASE supports task-specific implementations with lexical measurements, semantic primitives or evolved event/state factors, coupled to suitable numerical experts. Its feedback-based implementation uses conditional refitting diagnostics to guide factor revision and combination search. We evaluate ASE on the four text-associated TESS datasets and dynamic CSI 300 stock ranking. The four forecasting implementations obtain test MSEs of 0.001041, 0.022439, 0.333115 and 1.8150, each below the corresponding published TESS score. On CSI 300, the frozen text-fusion implementation improves mean RankIC by 0.000642 over its numerical expert and by 0.000701 over matched shuffled text, with positive differences in all five seeds. Controlled text perturbations support functional reliance on text correspondence, while incumbent retention prevents regressions in the measured development criterion. Together, the experiments characterize ASE at two levels: forecasting performance of task-specific implementations and the conditional contributions of individual modules.