From ice hazards to system failures: analysis and prevention of catastrophic icebreaker escort accidents on the Northern Sea Route

Abstract

The study examines catastrophic safety incidents in icebreaker escort operations on the Northern Sea Route (NSR). It develops strategies to prevent future accidents by analysing the Baikal–Vladivostok accident in the Yenisey Gulf of the Kara Sea in 2024 as a case study using the Swiss Cheese Model (SCM). The SCM-based analysis organised the documented factors associated with the Baikal–Vladivostok accident into multiple safety layers, including escort planning, safe-distance management, communication, operational coordination, and environmental conditions. It is concluded that Arctic maritime safety can be improved through risk-based escort planning, updating standard operating procedures, effective use of real-time ice information systems, development of decision support mechanisms, and strengthening safety governance practices that prioritise human and organizational factors. It aims to contribute to the literature by presenting feasible policy recommendations to reduce future catastrophic maritime accidents in the Arctic region through preventive strategies developed from a case study analysis.