Probabilistic Exposure Assessment and Risk Characterization of Trace Elements in Italian Bovine Meat

Abstract

Beef is widely consumed in the Western diet due to its high nutritional value. However, its potential contribution to chronic dietary exposure to trace elements warrants careful evaluation to ensure consumer health. This study aimed to assess the occurrence of 12 potentially toxic elements (Al, As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Ni, Pb, Sn, U, and Zn) and 14 rare earth elements (REEs) in bovine meat from Italy and to evaluate the associated chronic dietary exposure and health risks across different population age groups. A probabilistic approach based on Monte Carlo simulations was applied, integrating analytical occurrence data with national food consumption data. Elemental concentrations were determined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS), while Hg was analyzed using an advanced mercury analyzer based on thermo-oxidation. For Al, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, Sn, and U, estimated dietary exposures were well below toxicological reference values across all age groups, indicating no health concern under average and high consumption scenarios. Zn and Fe showed higher contributions to their provisional tolerable daily intakes, reaching 81% (Zn) and 23% (Fe) in children at the upper exposure percentiles. Median margins of exposure to inorganic As ranged from 20 to 62 across age groups but were below or close to 10 when considering the worst-case scenario, suggesting a potential concern for subpopulations with high exposure. Intakes of REEs were lower than 0.008 µg/kg bw/day; however, risk characterization was not possible due to the current lack of toxicological reference values. Overall, probabilistic modelling proved valuable for characterizing exposure variability and identifying vulnerable population groups, while indicating that Italian beef contributes only marginally to chronic exposure to potentially toxic elements.