ACED-Bench: Evaluating How LLM Agents Acquire and Act on Causal Evidence

Abstract

Large language models are increasingly used as scientific assistants, yet we still lack reliable ways to evaluate whether they can investigate a system rather than merely answer a prompt. A useful evaluation must let agents choose experiments, interpret finite evidence, and make causal decisions, while keeping the environment coherent across repeated observations and interventions and preserving objective ground truth. We introduce ACED-BENCH (Active Causal Evidence and Decision Benchmark), a neuro-symbolic benchmark built around this requirement. The key idea is to separate the readable scientific surface from the formal causal world: LLMs generate natural-language scenarios and task text, while hidden probabilistic graphical models define the causal graph, data-generating process, intervention semantics, validation checks, and oracle answers. This yields scientific worlds that are natural for agents to investigate but exact enough for scalable, programmatic evaluation. The main leaderboard ACED-CORE contains 180 tasks: 60 set-valued causal ancestry/descendancy questions and 120 constrained causal-decision tasks. We also report ACED-QUAL, a 150-question yes/no qualification check using the same hidden-PGM interface. We evaluate seven contemporary LLMs and two earlier-generation models across three active agent designs. ACED-QUAL checks whether agents can use the interface to draw conclusions from evidence, while ACED-CORE tests whether they can decide what evidence to collect and when to commit to an answer. Evidence-ledger analysis localizes failures within the investigation: agents test the wrong intervention, lose relevant evidence, or continue after sufficient evidence has appeared. These results suggest that reliable AI co-scientists need explicit support for experiment design, evidence retention, answer commitment, and stopping.