Desertification Forecasting in Semi-Arid Regions: Using Deep Learning to Probe the Observability Limits of Land Degradation Dynamics

Abstract

Forecasting desertification has received far less attention than mapping it. We use a convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) trained on ten annual Earth Observation (EO) variables (2000-2023) over the semi-arid state of Cear\'a, Brazil, on a 256x206 grid at roughly 2.2 km resolution, to measure how much of the year-to-year evolution of a MapBiomas-derived degradation index (IDV) can be predicted from satellite data. The network predicts a bounded change on top of the last observed state, is trained in two stages (single-step, then recursive rollout) and is evaluated on a contiguous spatial and temporal holdout. State-wide mean IDV rose from 0.238 to 0.350 between 2000 and 2023, about 0.005 per year, but cell-level change is dominated by year-to-year jumps, and a gradient-boosting model given all channels explains only 4.7% of its variance. Against this ceiling, the ConvLSTM lowers RMSE relative to persistence by 1.6% one year ahead and 4.4% four years ahead in a held-out southern band (p < 0.001), beats persistence with a constant drift and reproduces 53-69% of the regional drift. Drift-aware baselines only help from the third year onward, by up to 4.4% in RMSE at six years. An earlier formulation that redrew the whole field each year predicted changes unrelated to the observed ones (correlation -0.06) and produced a spurious decline when run recursively. Channel knockouts suggest that elevation and EVI degrade the forecast, while slope and aspect have no measurable effect. Monte Carlo dropout and stochastic scenario maps convey the uncertainty that the expected-value forecast hides. Under climatological forcing, mean IDV rises from 0.350 in 2023 to 0.370 in 2030. EO-based desertification forecasting is therefore reliable for the regional trend, not for individual cells.