快消品供应链牛鞭效应的治理策略研究——基于宝洁的案例分析

Abstract

The bullwhip effect is a typical demand‑distortion phenomenon in multi‑echelon supply chains, which is prevalent in the multi‑level distribution system of fast‑moving consumer goods (FMCG). As demand information is transmitted upward along the supply chain, it gets continuously distorted and amplified, which easily leads to excessive inventory, capacity mismatch, higher operational costs and supply‑demand imbalance, and impairs the overall efficiency and stability of supply chains. Taking Procter & Gamble’s diaper supply chain in the 1990s as a research case, this paper adopts relevant supply‑chain theories to analyze the formation mechanism, major causes and negative impacts of the bullwhip effect in the FMCG industry. Combined with the collaborative supply‑chain practices of Procter & Gamble and Walmart, this paper sorts out governance measures including data sharing, vendor‑managed inventory (VMI) and collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment (CPFR), and puts forward optimization strategies to mitigate the bullwhip effect for FMCG enterprises. Based on real‑world cases and mature theoretical findings, this research can provide practical references for FMCG firms to improve supply‑chain management, weaken the bullwhip effect and build stable supply‑demand systems.