ESA-FT1-REPRO-v1.0.2: Script and Provenance Package for Structural Alarm-Feasibility Analysis and Exploratory Mutual-Information Diagnostics

Abstract

Overview ESA-FT1-REPRO-v1.0.2 is a script and provenance package supporting the study “When Early-Warning Alarms Become Unreachable: Structural Feasibility and Exploratory Mutual-Information Diagnostics on ESA Satellite Telemetry.” The study investigates a structural failure mode in information-theoretic early-warning systems: an alarm threshold that cannot be reached under a fixed estimator and calibration configuration. Using European Space Agency (ESA) Mission 1 telemetry (Channels 41 and 42), the study establishes that the frozen KA C2 indicator has an analytical upper bound of 1.25131, below its registered alarm threshold of 1.30. Consequently, standard alarm activation is mathematically impossible under this specific configuration. A subsequent post-hoc exploratory analysis (D3) examined mutual-information characteristics in matched pre-anomaly and control windows. Across 16 two-sided Wilcoxon signed-rank tests involving 14 valid matched pairs, no comparison reached the Bonferroni-corrected significance threshold (α = 0.003125). Package Contents Version 1.0.2 contains: Frozen Python scripts for the KA information-theoretic estimator, D3 analysis, ESA telemetry loading, and G4 calibration. A README documenting software requirements, analysis interfaces, and execution instructions. A SHA-256 provenance manifest identifying the included scripts and additional research artefacts. The included scripts are preserved with their verified SHA-256 identifiers. Reproducibility Scope and Limitations This deposit is a script and provenance package, not a complete standalone reproduction package. The frozen G4 results JSON, P-MATCH v0.3 episode-matching artefact, D3 results JSON, and locally derived ESA anomaly catalogue are not included in this release. These dependencies are identified through provenance information. Reproducing the complete empirical analysis requires the corresponding ESA telemetry, matching records, frozen calibration results, anomaly annotations, and documented software dependencies. The exact release-level provenance of the locally archived ESA Mission 1 Channel 41/42 telemetry files has not been independently established against the official Zenodo dataset releases. No frozen G4/G5 decisions, estimator implementations, or D3 statistical results were modified in preparing this deposit. Related Resources KA-Space theoretical framework:https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20176694 ESA Anomaly Dataset (2024):https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12528696 ESA Anomaly Dataset subsequent release (2025):https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15237121 Intended Use This package is intended for research transparency, software inspection, provenance verification, and methodological examination of alarm-feasibility analysis in safety-critical monitoring systems. It does not establish universal early-warning performance or validated operational reliability of the KA framework. Version: 1.0.2Authors: Hikmat Karimov and Rahid Zahid AlekberliInstitution: Institute of Defense Technologies and Cybersecurity, Azerbaijan Technical University, Baku, AzerbaijanYear: 2026