We determine exactly what a kurtosis bound buys for one-sided tail control. For the class $\mathcal{C}(\kappa)$ of real random variables with mean $0$, variance $1$, and fourth moment at most $\kappa$, the skewness left free, we compute the worst-case tail probability $V_1(t,\kappa)=\sup_{X\in\mathcal{C}(\kappa)}\mathbb{P}(X\geq t)$ for every threshold $t>0$ and every $\kappa\geq 1$. The answer is a four-regime map: a Cantelli tongue $b(\kappa)\le t\le c(\kappa)$ on which the two-moment bound $1/(1+t^2)$ remains tight and the kurtosis constraint is worthless; a tail regime $t\geq c(\kappa)$ with the closed form $V_1=(\kappa-1)/((t^2-1)^2+\kappa-1)$; a plateau regime, present only for $\kappa\le 3/2$, on which the worst case freezes and the value does not depend on $t$; and a central regime described exactly by an explicit algebraic system, provably admitting no closed form in nested square roots. Beyond $c(\kappa)$ the one-sided and two-sided worst cases coincide: Cantelli's improvement over Chebyshev is annihilated by fourth-moment information. The minimal degree of a sum-of-squares proof of the tight bound is $2$ on the closed tongue and $4$ everywhere else, an exact phase diagram of proof degree. Every closed-form regime carries an explicit dual certificate and an explicit extremal distribution, re-verified on parameter grids by an independent checker in exact arithmetic. The closed forms invert to exact worst-case quantiles, sharpen a median-of-means constant, and give the exact per-direction tail available to degree-4 reasoning under certifiable kurtosis. We found the map through an AI-guided search around the certifying pipeline, LemmaForge, which is validated on classical benchmarks, independently reproduces the symmetric-slice bound of Zelen (1954), and recovers the $2\sqrt{3}-3$ constant of He, Zhang, and Zhang (2010) at $t=0$.
Consider $n$ independent, non-negative, mean at most one random variables, $X_1,X_2,\ldots$. We show the following bound on the probability of their sum exceeding a threshold $t$: \[ \mathbb{P}\left[\sum_{i=1}^n X_i\ge t\right] \leq 1-\left(1-\frac{1}{t}\right)^n \text{ for all } t\ge 2n+1 \,. \] To prove this, we consider a relaxed optimization problem over a set of sequences of ordered, but non-independent random variables. This allows us to reformulate it recursively as dynamic programming problem. The bound becomes an equality for the binary i.i.d.~random variables satisfying $\mathbb{P}\left[X_i=0\right]= 1-\frac{1}{t}$ and $\mathbb{P}\left[X_i=t\right]=\frac{1}{t}$, which remains the maximizer in the relaxed problem.
Given observations $\mathbf x=(x_1,\dots,x_n)$, Gaffke (2005) defined \[ K_n(\mathbf x)=\mathbb{P}_{\mathbf D}\!\left\{\sum_{i=1}^n x_iD_i\le 1\right\}, \qquad (D_0,D_1,\ldots,D_n)\sim\mathrm{Dirichlet}(1,\ldots,1), \] and conjectured that it is a $p$-value whenever the inputs are independent e-values. Recently, Vlassis and Thomas (2026) proved this conjecture. Inverting the tests for observations in $[0,1]$ gives the confidence interval studied by Learned-Miller and Thomas (2020), which reduces to Clopper--Pearson for Bernoulli data. We give a finite- and large-sample account of Gaffke's test and interval. First, for every $\mathbf x\in[0,\infty)^n$ and every elementary symmetric polynomial $e_k$, \( K_n(\mathbf x)e_k(\mathbf x)\le {n\choose k}, \) so the Gaffke $p$-value never larger than the SymPol $p$-value of Ming et al. (2026). However, Gaffke's p-value is inadmissible. For $n=2$, we construct a valid rule that is strictly smaller on mixed configurations and is the unique admissible rule that dominates $K_2$. A neutral-face extension proves inadmissibility of $K_n$ for every $n\ge2$. If one independent uniform random variable is allowed, there is an even simpler full-dimensional improvement: on the upper orthant, where $K_n(\mathbf x)=1/\prod_i x_i$, replace it by $U/\prod_i x_i$. The equal-tail Gaffke confidence interval $I_n$ is nevertheless first-order asymptotically efficient: for iid observations on $[0,1]$ with unknown variance $\sigma^2>0$, \[ \sqrt n\,\operatorname{Width}(I_n)\longrightarrow 2\sigma z_{1-\alpha/2}\qquad\text{almost surely}. \] Our simulations also find that, among a variety of bounded-mean intervals considered, the Gaffke interval is the shortest, including comparisons with a recent empirical Berry--Esseen procedure having the same first-order Gaussian target.
Jiahao Ming, Aaditya Ramdas, Yi Shen et al.· arXiv.org· 4 citations· ⚡1
Let $S_c=P_{(0,c)}QP_{(0,c)}$ be the one-dimensional sinc-kernel concentration operator, let $N_a(c)=\#{n:\lambda_n(c)>a}$, and set $\bar L=\log((1-\delta)/\delta)$. We prove, uniformly for each fixed $A>0$, the tail-side quantile formula $N_\delta(c)=c+\pi^{-2}\bar L\log(4\pi^2c/\bar L)+O_A(\log c+\bar L)$ for $6\le\bar L\le A\log c$. It yields corresponding additive formulas for the lower half and full plunge, with main terms respectively $\pi^{-2}\bar L\log(4\pi^2c/\bar L)$ and twice this quantity. An exact one-tail-coordinate selection gives, for fixed $A>0$, $d\ge1$, and $q\in(1/2,1)$, the one-sided tensor-product bound $\Lambda_\delta(c;d)\ge\pi^{-2}d c^{d-1}\bar L\log(4\pi^2c/\bar L)-O_{A,d,q}(c^{d-1}(\log c+\bar L))$ for $L_{d,q}\le\bar L\le A\log c$, where $L_{d,q}=\log(q^{-(d-1)}(e^6+1)-1)$; the tensor content is nontrivial for $d\ge2$. The analytic input is a signed growing-parameter sine-kernel determinant asymptotic: uniformly for $0\le\omega\le A\log s$, $\log\det(I+(e^{2\omega}-1)K_s)=4\omega s/\pi+2\pi^{-2}\omega^2\log(4s)+2\log|G(1+i\omega/\pi)|^2+O_A((1+\omega)^4\log^2s/s)$, where $G$ is the Barnes $G$-function. We prove this negative-coupling counterpart of the Bothner--Deift--Its--Krasovsky theorem by direct IIKS steepest descent. We also retain the uniform head-side results and use a two-way determinant reduction to obtain the moving-depth lower-half bridge bound with constant $1/(32\pi^2)$; extending it to the deeper range uses Kulikov--Dam Larsen and may require a smaller constant. These counting formulas are additive. Their errors become uniformly relative when $\bar L$ tends uniformly to infinity; fixed thresholds are covered separately by Landau--Widom. A Lambert-$W_{-1}$ formula is recorded only for the continuous main term, not for individual eigenvalues.
Given $[0,1]$-valued random variables $X_1,\dots,X_n$ such that $\mathbb{E}[X_i | X_1,\dots,X_{i-1}]= \mu$ for all $i$, we propose a new nonasymptotic confidence interval for $\mu$ that is obtained by inverting terminal e-values generated by a novel betting strategy. When the data are iid, its limiting width matches that of the central limit theorem (``Gaussian-efficient''), finally surpassing the inefficient limits of previous betting intervals. Our main conceptual advance involves designing betting fractions that track the conditional rejection probability of the most powerful terminal test in a limiting Gaussian experiment. When one predictable variance estimator is shared across candidate means, the deterministic inversion is an interval for every data sequence and its two endpoints can be found easily. The width can be improved further with external randomization. In simulations, our method yields the tightest intervals to date; for every distribution tested and all sufficiently large $n$, our deterministic version beats STaR-Bets and is competitive with Gaffke, while the randomized improvement beats both. It thus combines finite-sample validity under martingale dependence, easy endpoint computation, Gaussian-efficient inference for iid data, and excellent empirical performance. We also extend the construction and its efficiency theory to sampling without replacement, where it again achieves state-of-the-art empirical performance.
Diego Martinez-Taboada, Aaditya Ramdas· 0 citations
Let $\boldsymbol{X}_i=(X_{1i},X_{2i})^\top$ be independent and identically distributed observations with mean $\boldsymbol{\mu}=(\mu_1,\mu_2)^\top$ constrained by $\mu_1\leq\mu_2$. We study empirical-likelihood inference for a fixed mean vector and distinguish it from the previously known test of equality against an ordered alternative. At a fixed interior point, the constrained empirical likelihood ratio has the usual $\chi^2_2$ limit. At a fixed boundary point $(m,m)^\top$, its limit is the chi-bar-square distribution $\tfrac12\chi^2_1+\tfrac12\chi^2_2$. By contrast, profiling the unknown common mean in the equality-versus-order test yields $\tfrac12\chi^2_0+\tfrac12\chi^2_1$, the $k=2$ ordered-mean case of El Barmi (1996). We give an exact reduction of the latter statistic to the empirical likelihood of the paired differences, establish the localization step needed for the fixed-boundary expansion, and derive a local-to-boundary limit showing that interior calibration is not uniform over $n^{-1/2}$-neighborhoods of the boundary. Monte Carlo experiments under Gaussian, Student $t_5$, and shifted log-normal sampling examine fixed, boundary, and local regimes with explicit numerical-failure accounting. Illustrative paired-data analyses show the practical distinction between fixed-candidate confidence regions, directional equality tests, and ordinary scalar empirical-likelihood intervals truncated to the nonnegative parameter space.
A new logarithmic-free upper bound shows that a $\gamma$-uniformly stable algorithm with loss in $[0,L]$ has generalization gap at most, which determines the optimal high-probability and moment dependence of uniform stability up to universal constants.
Pahan Dewasurendra· 0 citations
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