A three-stage calibration framework that evaluates confidence before, during, and after chain-of-thought generation, corresponding to difficulty estimation, early termination, and answer aggregation finds that OPD provides the most useful pre-reasoning confidence, SFT gives the strongest online signal for early stopping, and RL produces the most reliable trace-level signal for aggregation.
Abstract
Large language models have made strong reasoning gains through supervised fine-tuning, reinforcement learning, and on-policy distillation, yet these post-training methods are usually evaluated only by final-answer accuracy. We study how they reshape confidence during reasoning. We introduce a three-stage calibration framework that evaluates confidence before, during, and after chain-of-thought generation, corresponding to difficulty estimation, early termination, and answer aggregation. Through a controlled comparison on mathematical reasoning benchmarks, we find that OPD provides the most useful pre-reasoning confidence, SFT gives the strongest online signal for early stopping, and RL produces the most reliable trace-level signal for aggregation. We further show that confidence reliability is position-dependent: RL confidence becomes informative after a path-commitment phase, while OPD confidence is useful early but can become inversely calibrated later. Based on this observation, we propose PosConf, a position-aware confidence strategy that uses confidence only from reliable relative-position intervals. PosConf improves RL answer aggregation by 6.1 points over majority voting and consistently improves OPD early stopping under tight token budgets, with gains up to 4.3 points by avoiding its later inverse-calibration region, showing that \emph{confidence in reasoning models should be used both stage-wise and position-awarely}. Our code is available at https://github.com/EIT-NLP/Post-Training-Calibration.
Large language models have made strong reasoning gains through supervised fine-tuning, reinforcement learning, and on-policy distillation, yet these post-training methods are usually evaluated only by final-answer accuracy. We study how they reshape confidence during reasoning. We introduce a three-stage calibration framework that evaluates confidence before, during, and after chain-of-thought generation, corresponding to difficulty estimation, early termination, and answer aggregation. Through a controlled comparison on mathematical reasoning benchmarks, we find that OPD provides the most useful pre-reasoning confidence, SFT gives the strongest online signal for early stopping, and RL produces the most reliable trace-level signal for aggregation. We further show that confidence reliability is position-dependent: RL confidence becomes informative after a path-commitment phase, while OPD confidence is useful early but can become inversely calibrated later. Based on this observation, we propose PosConf, a position-aware confidence strategy that uses confidence only from reliable relative-position intervals. PosConf improves RL answer aggregation by 6.1 points over majority voting and consistently improves OPD early stopping under tight token budgets, with gains up to 4.3 points by avoiding its later inverse-calibration region, showing that \emph{confidence in reasoning models should be used both stage-wise and position-awarely}. Our code is available at https://github.com/EIT-NLP/Post-Training-Calibration.
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A controlled experiment on the final window of pretraining, the last data trained on before instruction tuning, finds that what a model is pretrained on last shapes how it reacts to alignment, and what it was trained on last should be reported with it.
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Post-training large language models usually applies a single training recipe to all samples, even though the model's own rollouts reveal different sample-level learning states. We propose Self-Routing, a behavior-conditioned post-training framework that uses rollout correctness and confidence to decide how each sample should be optimized. Depending on its behavior state, a sample is routed to GRPO, on-policy self-distillation, regularization, or skipping, allowing training to adapt without external teachers, extra annotations, or additional sampling. Experiments on mathematical reasoning across Qwen3 and Qwen3.5 backbones show that Self-Routing consistently improves over uniform GRPO, uniform OPSD, fixed mixtures, and simpler routing baselines. Further analyses show that the routing distribution changes over training and reduces unnecessary updates on low-signal or already stable samples.
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A simple modification to supervised fine-tuning, TailSFT, which filters out already fit sequences during training, thereby focusing learning on under-modeled regions, or the tail, of the data distribution, and introduces a lightweight diagnostic for identifying settings where TailSFT is most likely to help.
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