DEMOGRAPHIC VULNERABILITY IN ROMANIA BETWEEN 1992-2025: A MULTIDIMENSIONAL ANALYSIS BASED ON A COMPOSITE INDEX

Abstract

This study analyses the demographic vulnerability of Romania's 41 counties and Bucharest Municipality over the period 1992-2025, using a panel dataset of 1,428 county-year observations. Vulnerability is treated as a multidimensional phenomenon resulting from the interaction of population ageing, the weakening of reproductive potential, natural population imbalance, and territorial mobility. Based on time series covering population by domicile, age and sex structure, births, deaths, and migration flows, a Demographic Vulnerability Index (DVI) comprising four dimensions and eight indicators is constructed. The indicators are winsorized at the 1st and 99th percentiles, min-max normalized across the entire panel, and aggregated using equal weights, while the results are tested through alternative normalization procedures and external validation against population dynamics. At the national level, the population by domicile declines from 23.13 million in 1992 to 21.67 million in 2025 (-6.29%); the share of persons aged 65 and over increases from 11.0% to 18.7%; and the ageing index rises from 48.7 to 135.4 older persons per 100 children. The 15- 24/55-64 generational replacement ratio falls from 156.4 to 78.7, while the rate of natural increase deteriorates from -0.15‰ to -4.34‰. In 2025, the highest DVI values are recorded in Brăila, Hunedoara, Caraș-Severin, Teleorman, and Tulcea, whereas the lowest are found in Ilfov, Suceava, Iași, and Bistrița-Năsăud. The mean DVI for 1992-2025 is strongly associated with cumulative population loss (Spearman's rho = - 0.884; p < 0.001), and the rankings remain stable under alternative specifications. The results reveal pronounced territorial polarization and demonstrate that demographic vulnerability cannot be reduced to depopulation alone, thereby calling for differentiated public-policy responses.