Migration Trends in the Oromia and Former Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Regions, Ethiopia (2012-2022)

Abstract

Migration is a global phenomenon affecting social, economic, and environmental systems. In Ethiopia, migration patterns vary across the Oromia and former SNNPR regions due to social, economic, and demographic factors. This study examined household- and community-level factors of migration from 2012 to 2022. A community-based cross-sectional survey design was used to collect data from 1,024 study participants between September and December 2022. Mixed-effects Weibull proportional hazards regression analyzed out-migration risk, expressed as adjusted hazard ratios (AHR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results showed that households with heads educated to the primary level had 5.48 times higher out-migration risk than those with heads having no education. Those led by individuals with secondary education or higher had a 7.70 times higher hazard compared to those with individuals having no education. Households in the former SNNP region were exposed to an 81% higher out-migration risk than those living in Oromia. The risk of out-migration was 54% higher for males compared to females. Households practicing proactive adaptation had a 53% lower out-migration risk compared to those that did not adapt. Each additional year of the household head’s age was associated with a 10% decrease in out-migration risk. Living in communities with low poverty reduced out-migration risk by 54% compared to high-poverty areas. Households that experienced a one-unit increase in drought risk perception exhibited a 2% higher risk of out-migration. The study concluded that education, region, gender, adaptation strategies, age, community poverty, and social support significantly influence migration risk. Migration management policies should focus on these factors to better address migration challenges in these regions. This study was explicitly underpinned by Protection Motivation Theory and Social Network Theory. It guided the interpretation of migration behaviours as risk-response actions mediated by social ties and coping appraisals. The application of these theoretical perspectives highlights how perceived threats, coping efficacy, and social networks shape migration decisions.