Spatial Differentiation and Quantitative Assessment of Disaster Risk for Socialist Built Heritage Driven by Meteorological–Environmental Factors in Henan, China

Abstract

In response to the escalating challenges of global climate change and extreme meteorological events, this study addresses the critical issue of low disaster resistance in socialist-built heritage (SBH, i.e., built cultural heritage constructed during China’s socialist construction stage from 1949 to 1978). Focusing on Henan Province, China, with meteorological observation datasets spanning 1990–2023 and 1362 SBH sites constructed from 1949 to 1978, we innovatively construct a four-dimensional risk assessment model integrating Meteorological–Environmental Hazard (H), Exposure (E), Vulnerability (V), and Ecological Resilience (R). By synthesizing Spearman correlation analysis, Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) diagnostics, and piecewise regression, this research elucidates the spatial differentiation and driving mechanisms of meteorology-induced compound disaster risks. Key findings identify Zhengzhou and Kaifeng as core high-risk zones and precisely quantify a critical hazard threshold of 0.4 with a 95% breakpoint confidence interval [0.372, 0.428], passing the Chow test p < 0.001 and validated via historical heritage damage records (R2 = 0.78). Variable-importance analysis proves that extreme precipitation (32.7%) and annual strong-wind days (28.1%) are the dominant meteorological–environmental drivers, alongside the significant buffering effect of ecological resilience. Ultimately, this study refines the disaster risk assessment framework for SBH, providing robust theoretical support and a decision-making basis for adaptive conservation strategies in similar regions. The average disaster risk of SBH in Henan is 0.421 ± 0.153; for each 0.1 growth of H-E-V coupling term above the threshold of 0.4, disaster risk rises by 37.2%.