A computational account of confidence in multimodal language models is provided, when answer logits behave as readouts of a latent decision variable is delineated, and statistical decision confidence is established as a unifying framework for studying confidence across biological and artificial intelligence.
Abstract
Reliable confidence -- the probability that a model's own answer is correct -- is essential for the trustworthy deployment of language models. Existing work has largely evaluated confidence by how well it predicts correctness and whether it is calibrated, leaving open a more fundamental question: what does the confidence signal itself represent? Answer logits may reflect a latent decision variable sufficient to compute normative confidence, or instead a heuristic preference signal that combines the available evidence in a non-Bayesian manner. We address this using statistical decision confidence (SDC), a normative framework from computational neuroscience. Treating the answer-logit difference (LD) as a candidate readout of the latent decision variable, we test the qualitative signatures predicted by SDC. Across three perceptual discrimination tasks and a memory-based decision task, spanning three multimodal non-reasoning models and one reasoning model, LD satisfied these signatures -- including the diagnostic correct/error folded-X pattern -- showing that, in these settings, answer logits behave as monotonic readouts of a latent decision variable rather than heuristic preference scores. In complex visual reasoning, LD continued to predict correctness beyond objective task difficulty, but the full geometric signatures of SDC were absent, illustrating the current boundary of the framework when explicit normative process models are unavailable. These results provide a computational account of confidence in multimodal language models, delineate when answer logits behave as readouts of a latent decision variable, and establish SDC as a unifying framework for studying confidence across biological and artificial intelligence.
Regression analyses show that distributional properties of confidence scores explain much of the observed alignment pattern, with model metadata playing a smaller role after controls, and support a lossy-channel view of linguistic confidence.
Hefan Zhang, Bing-Quan Zhang, Ming Cheng et al.· 0 citations
Claim-level decomposition combined with post-hoc calibration reduces expected calibration error on factual questions while exposing failure modes on adversarial false-premise questions where decision-makers most need reliable uncertainty estimates.
Toghrul Abbasli, Kentaroh Toyoda, Yuan Wang et al.· 0 citations
Statistical reasoning is multidimensional, yet evaluations of large language models (LLMs) typically emphasize response accuracy while overlooking how models construct and communicate statistical explanations. This study demonstrates the value of a multidimensional evaluation by combining response accuracy, response behavior, structural topic modeling, and lexical similarity analysis. The framework is applied to explanations generated by 15 current-generation LLMs responding to 90 questions drawn from four statistics examinations spanning high school, undergraduate, and graduate levels. Accuracy varied substantially across models, ranging from 55\% to 78\%. In contrast, structural topic modeling revealed a common conceptual organization of statistical reasoning across all models, while lexical similarity analysis identified modest but consistent vendor-specific differences in explanatory style. Models developed by the same vendor (e.g. Anthropic, OpenAI) produced explanations that were slightly more similar than models from different vendors. These findings demonstrate that statistical reasoning in contemporary LLMs cannot be characterized by accuracy alone and illustrate how complementary analyses of response behavior and model-generated explanations provide a more comprehensive evaluation of statistical reasoning in generative AI.
ConfidenceBench, a calibration benchmark that evaluates verbalized confidence estimates in 15 frontier LLMs using the Brier score, a proper scoring rule that incentivises truthful probability reporting shows that verbalized confidence calibration is a distinct and practically important axis of LLM reliability, complementary to standard accuracy-based evaluation.
M. ffrench-Constant, Daniel Yang, Xinmeng Huang et al.· arXiv.org· 1 citation· ⚡1
Large language models increasingly produce and interpret verbal probability expressions, yet whether these expressions carry consistent meaning across models (or match human perceptions of uncertainty) remains unknown. We present a systematic cross-model evaluation using a word-to-number mapping task grounded in established human benchmarks. Eleven uncertainty expressions were presented to 19 models under two conditions, forced single-number response and explanation elicitation, alongside a novel bidirectional roundtrip test of internal consistency. LLMs track the human benchmark with surprising fidelity: word ordering is preserved, three anchor points are recovered, and ``possible''shows the highest variance and cross-model disagreement of any expression tested, consistent with its documented bimodal interpretation in humans. However, models show a systematic upward bias for negative expressions such as ``unlikely''and ``improbable.''Explanation elicitation reduces within-model variance while increasing between-model divergence, stabilizing individual models at the cost of inter-model consensus, and the roundtrip experiment reveals clear stratification, with frontier models maintaining coherent bidirectional representations. LLMs thus reproduce the structure of human verbal probability cognition, including its biases, while diverging systematically at the negative end---with implications for any setting where humans and models exchange probabilistic language.
Different capacities for mentalization across LLMs are demonstrated, and cognitive computational modeling is highlighted as a formal method for assessing comparative intelligence across humans and machines.
Aamir Sohail, Xintong Zhong, Arkady Konovalov et al.· 0 citations
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