Construction contract durations are fixed during procurement, yet delivery often changes after risks materialize and formal extensions of time are approved. Although delays, extension-of-time claims, change orders, and risk-based duration estimation are well studied, less is known about how contract-amendment records can be converted into duration multipliers for planning. This paper develops a quantitative, document-based Risk-Calibrated Duration Multiplier framework linking initially contracted duration, approved extensions, and documented risk causes. The framework was applied to 197 signed works contracts from 60 projects within a broader portfolio of 63 EU-funded water and wastewater infrastructure projects, predominantly administered under FIDIC Red and Yellow Book conditions. The analysis combined duration multipliers, impact-weighted attribution of multi-risk amendments, risk-time coefficients, bootstrap uncertainty assessment, concentration indicators, benchmark regression models, and reconstruction validation. For completed contracts, the mean multiplier was 1.372, with P50, P80, and P90 values of 1.233, 1.635, and 1.886. Public-law procedural and design risk categories accounted for 60.9% of the total extension premium. The results show that contract-amendment records can be transformed into statistically interpretable planning parameters and used as a portfolio learning and contract-governance tool for more realistic infrastructure contract planning.
Probabilistic risk management has become central to delivering safer and more resilient building projects under growing cost, schedule, and sustainability pressures. This study synthesizes how probability-based approaches have been applied in building-related risk research and identifies unresolved gaps that limit their practical impact. Using a PRISMA-guided systematic literature review of the Scopus database, we screened 165 records and qualitatively analyzed 39 Q1–Q4 journal articles published between 2015 and 2025. The review applies a multi-dimensional framework that classifies studies by risk type, project type, life-cycle stage, building type, methodology, and geographic context. Quantitative designs dominate, particularly Monte Carlo simulation and Bayesian or Dynamic Bayesian Network models, which are frequently embedded in BIM-enabled and Digital Twin environments for cost, safety, and seismic performance assessment. Evidence shows that construction and financial risks, commercial and residential buildings, and construction and operation–maintenance stages attract most scholarly attention, while pre-construction phases, infrastructure assets, and developing-country contexts remain under-explored. The review develops an integrated conceptual map that links probabilistic techniques with risk categories and project settings, and highlights the citation influence of seminal contributions. It also reveals methodological imbalances (limited mixed-methods and participatory studies) and weak integration of probabilistic risk assessment with sustainability and resilience objectives. Future research should extend probabilistic risk models to under-represented geographies and project types, exploit hybrid quantitative–qualitative and AI-enhanced approaches, and embed climate and circular-economy considerations into construction risk decision-support tools.
Dariyono, Oei Fuk Jin Oei Fuk Jin· Jurnal Teknik Sipil dan Arsi...· 0 citations
This study examines how FIDIC contracts operate in practice within international construction projects, with particular attention to risk allocation, dispute resolution, and sustainability-related obligations. Although FIDIC forms are designed to provide standardized contractual frameworks, their practical effectiveness may vary depending on the legal, institutional, and project-specific environments in which they are applied. The study adopts a qualitative comparative case study approach based on three selected mega-project contexts: NEOM in Saudi Arabia, Crossrail in the United Kingdom, and the Noor Solar Project in Morocco. These cases were selected to reflect different legal and regulatory environments and to enable comparison across hybrid and common law contexts. The analysis draws on contractual and legal literature, selected judicial authorities, and project-related materials to examine how legal systems, contractual amendments, governance structures, and sustainability requirements influence the practical operation of FIDIC-based contracts.The findings suggest that the effectiveness of FIDIC contracts is shaped less by their formal wording alone than by the context in which they are interpreted and implemented. In particular, legal environment appears to affect the practical operation of dispute-resolution mechanisms, national amendments may significantly alter the standardized operation of FIDIC forms, and sustainability obligations may introduce additional layers of contractual and governance complexity when incorporated into major projects.The study contributes to construction law and project governance literature by offering an integrated legal-comparative discussion of how FIDIC contracts function across selected mega-project environments. It suggests that FIDIC contracts are best understood as structured but context-sensitive frameworks whose practical effectiveness depends on legal setting, institutional support, and project-specific governance conditions.
Hamza Ali, Suleiman Alayaydeh, Mahasen Khalaf et al.· Journal of Intelligent Decis...· 0 citations
Background: Despite the growing adoption of hybrid contract models in construction, energy, and agricultural procurement, there remains a significant gap in understanding how lump-sum and unit-price contracts differentially allocate risk across sectors and country contexts. This study addresses this gap by examining risk mitigation strategies through document analysis and thematic synthesis.
Objective: The aim of this study was to identify key risk allocation strategies, contractual mechanisms, and the effectiveness of hybrid models in managing uncertainty across developed and developing country contexts.
Methods: A qualitative approach based on thematic analysis and cross-case comparison was applied, drawing on 48 peer-reviewed sources published between 2015 and 2025, alongside relevant sector documents and procurement reports.
Results: The analysis identified that hybrid contracts reduced cost overrun variability by incorporating performance-based incentives aligned with Expected Utility Theory and Principal-Agent Theory, while developing economies such as Indonesia and Bangladesh exhibited distinct risk profiles requiring adaptive contract mechanisms. However, significant gaps remain, particularly regarding the empirical validation of blockchain-enabled contract enforcement and AI-driven risk prediction, as well as the underrepresentation of developing economy contexts in existing research.
Conclusion: The findings carry both scientific and practical implications. Theoretically, this study advances an integrative multi-theory framework combining Expected Utility Theory, Game Theory, and Principal-Agent Theory to analyse contract risk across diverse contexts. Practically, the results provide evidence-based guidance for procurement professionals and policymakers in selecting and designing contract structures that balance cost certainty with adaptive flexibility.
Robert Daniel Zebua, O. Jin· Equivalent: Jurnal Ilmiah So...· 0 citations
The article examines the modeling of contracting processes in the Ukrainian defense procurement system amid elevated financial and operational risks. The study systematized the principal risk factors affecting contracting decisions and substantiates the need to translate risk assessment results into specific contractual parameters, rather than limit risk management to identifying individual risk events. An adaptive contracting model is proposed that integrates the assessment of procurement criticality and urgency with the supplier’s risk profile, a two-dimensional matrix for configuring contractual decisions, and a three-level system for continuous monitoring of residual risk. Particular attention is given to the differentiated selection of procurement procedures, payment and advance-payment arrangements, performance security instruments, the depth of pre-contractual due diligence, and the intensity of subsequent monitoring, based on the combination of operational criticality and supplier risk. The model is designed as a closed management cycle in which monitoring results provide feedback to adjust individual contracts and model parameters. The institutional conditions, information requirements, methodological prerequisites, and key limitations of practical implementation are also identified. The proposed approach provides a framework to reduce discretionary decision-making, strengthen financial discipline, and balance the operational need for timely defense supplies with the protection of public financial interests. Further research should focus on empirical validation using actual defense procurement data, calibration of risk categories and indicator thresholds, expansion of supplier and contract-performance indicators, and integration of the model with digital defense procurement platforms.
Keywords: defense procurement, contracting processes, financial and operational risks, risk-oriented management, contract decision matrix, monitoring, contract management, decision support, digitalization.
Unknown authors· Ukrainian Journal of Applied...· 0 citations
Model-based life-cycle evaluation indicates that AI-optimized PPP contracts reduce bridges reaching emergency condition by 30%–40% over a 30-year horizon while lowering life-cycle costs by 8%–12% compared with rule-based policies, providing infrastructure agencies and private concessionaires with an integrated AI-driven life-cycle management platform.
Ali Shehadeh, Odey Alshboul· Journal of Legal Affairs and...· 0 citations
Cost risk allocation remains a key challenge in EPC-mode power engineering projects, where technical, market, and operational uncertainties can affect project delivery and lifecycle costs. This study investigates contractual governance mechanisms for optimizing cost risk distribution, using the DART (Definability, Affordability, Responsibility, and Transferability) framework to analyze responsibilities and dynamic pricing adjustments. While the research focuses on traditional EPC project management, the methodology is particularly relevant for electromagnetic engineering projects, such as antenna array installation, RF distribution networks, and high-frequency propagation infrastructure, where cost, schedule, and risk coordination are critical. The proposed framework integrates lifecycle cost management, multilevel performance supervision, and transparent contractual mechanisms to improve risk allocation efficiency and reduce disputes. By combining EPC contractual governance with engineering project management principles, the approach provides an effective strategy for managing cost and performance risks in complex electromagnetic infrastructure projects, ensuring reliable project execution and optimized resource utilization.
W. W. Wang, Y. Zhuang· Advanced Electromagnetics· 0 citations
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