“Compliance Trap” or “Resilience Anchor”? The U-Shaped Impact of Corporate ESG Performance on Agricultural Supply Chain Resilience

Abstract

Against recurrent external disruptions and the accelerated transition toward sustainable business practices, this study examines whether corporate environmental, social, and governance performance uniformly strengthens agricultural supply chain resilience. Using panel data for Chinese A-share listed agricultural firms from 2016 to 2025, we construct a resilience index covering resistance and recovery capacity and investigate its nonlinear relationship with ESG performance. The results reveal a significant U-shaped association. At relatively low ESG levels, adjustment expenditure and organizational reconfiguration are associated with weaker resilience, whereas the relationship becomes positive after the turning point. Mechanism evidence further supports three complementary channels involving information flow integration, capital flow guarantee, and management flow efficacy. Further period-based analysis suggests that the estimated ESG–resilience relationship exhibits different empirical patterns across regulatory periods. The findings extend the ESG-resilience literature by identifying a stage-dependent relationship in agricultural supply chains and by clarifying how sustainability-oriented investments can shift from short-term resource pressure to longer-term organizational capability.