Lifetime risk of respiratory system cancers across 185 countries: Global variation, socioeconomic inequalities, and ecological associations with air pollution
Aug 2026· Preventive medicine reports· Vol 70· 0 citations· 36 references
Medicine
TL;DR
Substantial geographic and socioeconomic disparities exist in respiratory cancer lifetime risk, with lung cancer as the dominant driver, and the observed ecological associations with air pollutants support further investigation of environmental factors in cancer prevention.
Abstract
Objective To estimate the lifetime risks of developing and dying from respiratory system cancers across 185 countries and territories and to examine their associations with socioeconomic development and air pollution. Methods GLOBOCAN 2022 data for 185 countries and territories were combined with United Nations life tables to estimate lifetime risks using an adjusted-for-multiple-primaries framework. Country-level air pollution indicators for 2022 were obtained from OpenWeather. Estimates were stratified by Human Development Index (HDI) and World Bank income groups, and associations between lifetime risk and PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and SO2 were assessed using univariable linear regression. Results Globally, the lifetime risk of developing and dying from lung cancer was 4.92% and 4.08%, respectively, far exceeding those for laryngeal cancer (0.33% and 0.20%). A marked socioeconomic gradient was identified: lung cancer incidence risk ranged from 0.34% in low-HDI countries to 5.45% in very high-HDI countries. All four pollutants were positively associated with lifetime risk, with PM2.5 showing the strongest correlation in the primary univariable analyses. Conclusions Substantial geographic and socioeconomic disparities exist in respiratory cancer lifetime risk, with lung cancer as the dominant driver. The observed ecological associations with air pollutants support further investigation of environmental factors in cancer prevention.
The findings suggest that socioeconomic and environmental factors may be associated with regional disparities in lung cancer burden and could offer insights for targeted prevention policies, including smoking control and air quality management.
Jiawei Zhai, Hui-Juan Zheng, Lan-Gang Xue· Frontiers in Public Health· 0 citations
Objective: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide. This study was aimed at estimating regional and national variations in lifetime CRC risk worldwide. Methods: CRC data were extracted from GLOBOCAN 2022, including 185 countries, and population and all-cause mortality data were sourced from the United Nations. The world was divided into 20 geographical regions and categorized by Human Development Index (HDI). Lifetime CRC risk was estimated with the life table method, adjusted for multiple primary cancers. Results: In 2022, the lifetime risks of developing and dying from CRC were 2.69% [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.68–2.70] and 1.39% (95% CI: 1.39–1.40), respectively. Men had a higher risk of colon cancer than rectal cancer, and higher CRC risk than women. Lifetime risk varied by region and HDI: regions with very high, high, moderate, and low HDI had incidence risks of 5.17%, 2.75%, 0.72%, and 0.57%, respectively, and mortality risks of 2.48%, 1.50%, 0.44%, and 0.41%, respectively. Australia/New Zealand had the highest incidence risk (7.41%, 95% CI: 7.30–7.52), and Northern Europe the highest mortality risk (3.28%, 95% CI: 3.24–3.32). Risks were stable before 40 years of age, peaked in middle age, and declined after 70 years of age. Temporally, Thailand had the highest increasing trend in lifetime risk, whereas the United States and Austria showed a decreasing trend. Conclusions: Lifetime CRC risk differs by subtype, sex, HDI, and geography, and residual risk gradually decreases with age. Targeted primary prevention strategies should be implemented in various countries and regions to mitigate CRC burden.
Li Li, K. Sun, Xiang Li et al.· Cancer Biology and Medicine· 0 citations
Lifetime risk of breast cancer disparities reveal the socioeconomic inequalities of breast cancer, and country-tailored intervention plans for breast cancer require prioritization within precision prevention to mitigate global breast cancer inequities and burden.
Weijia Kong, Heng-Na Lin, Jie Li et al.· Cancer Biology and Medicine· 0 citations
Focused interventions in low- and middle-SDI countries and rapidly industrializing regions are needed, including strengthened occupational exposure regulations, improved workplace arsenic monitoring, engineering controls, personal protective equipment, and regular health surveillance for workers in high-risk industries, to reduce inequalities and mitigate public health threats.
Di Wu, Xinxiao Li, Minghan Luo et al.· Medicine· 0 citations
INTRODUCTION
Respiratory infections and tuberculosis are leading causes of global morbidity and mortality; yet comprehensive research on their associated risk factors remains limited, hindering the development of effective preventive strategies.
METHODOLOGY
The 2021 Global Burden of Disease data from 204 countries (1990-2021) was used to measure deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and their age-standardized rates (ASMR and ASDR) tied to 9 risk factors. The trends were analyzed by age, gender, and socio-demographic index (SDI) regions, with annual and average annual percentage changes (APC, AAPC) used to track changes over time.
RESULTS
Globally, mortality rates (ASMR) for respiratory infections and tuberculosis linked to traditional risks-malnutrition, air pollution, and alcohol use-declined significantly; annual decreases of 4.46%, 3.18%, and 3.35%, respectively. Deaths attributed to metabolic risks like high BMI and blood sugar increased, despite falling ASMR. Geographic disparities were notable: Lesotho saw the sharpest rise in BMI-related mortality (3.92%), while Hungary had the steepest decline (-7.4%). Men faced a higher burden from behavioral risks, with tobacco-related mortality 3.6 times higher than in women. Children under 5 years were especially vulnerable to environmental risks, with unsafe water and sanitation contributing to a 4.55% annual decline in mortality rates.
CONCLUSIONS
This study highlights the need for targeted actions, such as tobacco control in high-middle SDI regions, air quality improvements in South Asia, and nutrition programs in Sub-Saharan Africa. It offers a precise public health framework to reduce respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and promote global health equity by analyzing sociodemographic and time trends.
Shareli Caikai, Jing Jiang, Yi Shi et al.· Journal of Infection in Deve...· 0 citations