Beyond the Graph: An Adaptive Meta-Learner Fuses Explainability, Weather, and Dynamics for Robust Bus ETA Prediction

Abstract

Accurate bus Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) prediction is vital for urban mobility, passenger satisfaction, and transit efficiency, yet existing models falter against nonlinear spatiotemporal dynamics, data sparsity, and factors such as weather. This paper proposes HYB(nm), an adaptive hybrid ensemble framework that dynamically fuses five complementary models - a historical baseline (MST-AV), periodical temporal pattern analysis (GDRN-DFT), Koopman Neural Operators for nonlinear dynamics (KOOP-NET), weather-integrated feature-engineered neural networks (FENN), and real-time graph convolutional networks (MGCN) - via a meta-learner attuned to real-time context. Evaluated on GPS and weather data from three Kolkata bus routes comprising more than 4,000 trips, the framework leverages the individual strengths of its components (for example, the low-latency explainability of MST-AV, the weather resilience of FENN, and the network-dynamics capture of MGCN) to deliver the superior robustness of HYB(2), state-of-the-art accuracy rivalling leading graph neural networks, and balanced trade-offs in stability and efficiency across prediction horizons and operating conditions. The extensible HYB(k) architecture equips transit agencies with flexible tools, ranging from economical single models to tailored high-fidelity hybrids, advancing predictive, equitable urban transport.