Online Federated Learning on Resource-Limited IoT Devices for Traffic Flow Prediction in Smart Mobility Ecosystems

Abstract

Traffic congestion significantly impacts safety and urban livability in smart cities, motivating the development of accurate Traffic Flow Prediction (TFP) systems. Traditional deep learning approaches typically rely on centralized training, which is difficult to scale in distributed Internet of Things (IoT) environments. To address these limitations, decentralized paradigms such as Local Learning (LL) and Federated Learning (FL) enable on-device training and collaborative model updates while preserving data locality. For real-time TFP, the inherently non-stationary nature of traffic data necessitates continuous model adaptation, making online federated learning essential for scalable and collaborative deployment. However, this setting remains challenging because traffic data are typically non-IID across clients, with local patterns varying significantly across locations and devices. This paper presents an exploratory study of online federated learning for TFP on resource-constrained IoT devices. Using a GRU-based network as a common backbone, the Online Federated Learning paradigm is benchmarked relative to Centralized and Local Learning as reference baselines. A performance evaluation was conducted by evaluating RMSE and MAE on the PEMS-BAY dataset. Robustness to non-IID data is further assessed using FedProx and SCAFFOLD. Results show that LL achieves the lowest prediction error, whereas FL degrades as the number of local epochs increases, and non-IID mitigation strategies provide limited improvements under low-latency constraints. Overall, online federated learning is a viable approach for real-time TFP, but its performance is highly sensitive to client heterogeneity.