CLASSIFICATION OF THREATS TO THE ECONOMIC SECURITY OF AN ORGANIZATION: INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL FACTORS IN THE DIGITAL ECONOMY
TL;DR
An author’s matrix of threats «probability × expected damage» is proposed, taking into account industry specifics and providing a transition from qualitative identification of threats to their quantitative prioritization.
Abstract
The article presents a systematization of threats to the economic security of an economic entity under the conditions of digital transformation, sanctions pressure, and the growing importance of cyber threats. Threats are classified on two basic grounds – the source of origin (internal and external) and the nature of economic damage – allowing the formation of a unified matrix. The structure of internal threats is revealed – corporate fraud, insider leaks, conflicts of interest, inefficiency of business processes – and the classical behavioral models «fraud triangle» by D. Cressey (1953) and «fraud diamond» by D. Wolfe and D. Hermanson (2004) are applied to the diagnosis of internal violation risk. External threats – counterparty, sanctions-and-regulatory, market, and cyber threats – are systematized. Based on data from international studies ACFE Report to the Nations 2024 and PwC Global Economic Crime and Fraud Survey 2022, a quantitative assessment of the significance of individual threat categories is carried out. An author’s matrix of threats «probability × expected damage» is proposed, taking into account industry specifics and providing a transition from qualitative identification of threats to their quantitative prioritization.